We've all heard the phrase "Just the luck of the draw" thrown around in sporting parlance. It's often used to brush off a bit of bad luck, or even good fortune. But let's take a little bit of a closer look at what that means for us here in the Steemit @aflfantasy Draft League.
What I have below is a way to attribute a value to just how lucky (or unlucky) we all are over the course of the season.
So how does it work? At the end of each round, I rank everyone's score in order from highest to lowest, then each score is attributed a Win Value based on the number of teams you potentially could have beaten, for example if you top scored, you would beat 15 out of 15 possible opponents, so you would be credited with 1 win. If you bottom score, you'd beat 0 out of 15, so you would get 0 wins. If you have the 5th highest score, you'd beat 11 out of 15 opponents, so you'd get 11/15ths of a win (0.733). Once each team is allocated their Win Value, we can then compare the Win Value (or statistically probable estimated wins) to the Actual Wins. A score where Actual Wins > Expected Wins is a Lucky Score. A score where Actual Wins < Expected Wins is an Unlucky Score.
We're back from the bye rounds this week so how did we all fare in Week 11?
@dahmsy79 picked up where he left off by top scoring again, so he gets 1 Expected Win, and farqers (@farq) was the lowest ranked team, so he gets 0 Expected Wins. The rest fall somewhere in between.
The graphic below, shows us how we all went comparatively this week (highlighted in yellow), as well as the overall Luck Ladder (highlighted in green)
So as we can see, Little Old Lady is still still riding his luck status, despite being humbled by Piston-Broke (me), coincidentally, it is these two teams that are also listed as the luckiest - Little Old Lady with +1.7 wins up on expected, and Piston-Broke with +1.635. At the other end of the scale, Medhurst's Minions (@medhursc) are still languishing at the bottom of the Luck Ladder, having scored 2.533 fewer wins than his expected total. It's hard to see that changing any time soon with his nearest rival Brockie's Superstars with only 1.333 fewer than expected, but footy is a funny game, so anything is possible.
So that's the luck of the draw for week 11. I'll update this each week through the course of the season so we can all keep track of how we're travelling...
If you find this even remotely interesting, leave me a comment. If there's anything I could explain better, let me know.
Cheers,
Sparkesy