We've all heard the phrase "Just the luck of the draw" thrown around in sporting parlance. It's often used to brush off a bit of bad luck, or even good fortune. But let's take a little bit of a closer look at what that means for us here in the Steemit @aflfantasy Draft League.
What I have below is a way to attribute a value to just how lucky (or unlucky) we all are over the course of the season.
So how does it work? At the end of each round, I rank everyone's score in order from highest to lowest, then each score is attributed a Win Value based on the number of teams you potentially could have beaten, for example if you top scored, you would beat 15 out of 15 possible opponents, so you would be credited with 1 win. If you bottom score, you'd beat 0 out of 15, so you would get 0 wins. If you have the 5th highest score, you'd beat 11 out of 15 opponents, so you'd get 11/15ths of a win (0.733). Once each team is allocated their Win Value, we can then compare the Win Value (or statistically probable estimated wins) to the Actual Wins. A score where Actual Wins > Expected Wins is a Lucky Score. A score where Actual Wins < Expected Wins is an Unlucky Score.
As we enter the pointy end of the season, how did we all fare in Week 14?
Mr Unlucky, Medhurst's Minions is storming home with a wet sail, top scoring for the round , so he gets 1 Expected Win, and this week it was the farqers (@farq) who was the lowest ranked team and gets 0 Expected Wins. The rest fall somewhere in between.
The graphic below, shows us how we all went comparatively this week (highlighted in yellow), as well as the overall Luck Ladder (highlighted in green)
So as we can see, Piston-Broke (me), is still sitting pretty at the top with a differential of +2.368, with Lockout (@o07) my nearest rival with +2.067. At the other end of the scale, Medhurst's Minions (@medhursc) smashed out the top score of the round, but are still sitting bottom of the Luck Ladder, having scored 2.466 fewer wins than his expected total - remarkably, desipite this luck the Minions still look like sneaking into the finals. Cunning Stunts remains his closest rival with 1.2 fewer wins than expected.
So that's the luck of the draw for week 14. I'll update this each week through the course of the season so we can all keep track of how we're travelling...
If you find this even remotely interesting, leave me a comment. If there's anything I could explain better, let me know.
Cheers,
Sparkesy