“Technical Analysis” actually can be valuable, but ONLY as a supplemental tool within a broad, FUNDAMENTALLY grounded analytical mosaic. In isolation, however, it can be the most dangerous, destructive force in finance – as it plays on emotions, and cannot be “gamed.” Moreover, it doesn’t account for dozens of variables unknown to efficient, rapidly changing markets – particularly in cryptocurrency, a nascent asset that is one of the most volatile, and at times illiquid, in all of finance.
As a CFA-trained analyst with three decades of experience – as a trader, analyst, marketer, and commentator – I have as much insight into technical analysis as anyone. Not to mention, I’m FAMOUS for my work on market manipulation – which is ubiquitous in legacy markets, and NOT accounted for by “charts.” Not that the TRUTH needs to be reiterated – that 90% of all “traders” lose money…but given how many “investors” think they can be amongst the 10%, I’m doing so here, as loudly as possible!
Worse than TA itself are the “gurus” that prey upon novices – which in the case of “trading,” is essentially everyone. The sad thing is, said “gurus” are novices themselves – as if they were really that good, they wouldn’t need to beg for fees and subscriptions in return for “expert advice,” using fancy-looking charts that, for all intents and purposes, are pure BULLSH-T…particularly those, like “9 count” charts, that are so widely watched, any value they may have once had is long gone.
“Gurus” make dozens of predictions - making sure they have all avenues covered, so they can always claim to be “right.” Worst of all is what I observed for 15 years in Precious Metals – and now, in crypto currency; which is, those with “proprietary TA knowledge” who are “short-term bearish, but long-term bullish.” These wolves in sheep’s clothing claim they believe strongly in the asset, but it will likely plunge before it moons. Sound familiar?
Not all “gurus” are the same – as not all seek your money. However, they can be equally destructive – particularly perma-bulls and perma-bears, who gain followings because their bias coincides with the wants and needs of readers. In other words, someone desperate to hear bullish TA will follow @SECRET_TRADER because he is ALWAYS bullish…no matter how wrong he has been. Conversely, @tonevays is popular because NOCOINERS and shorts want to be relentlessly told that Bitcoin will plunge to $1,300.
In the case of @SECRET_TRADER, he seems like a likeable enough guy, who does not ask for money. However, since joining Twitter this summer, here’s a sampling of his “kiss of death” predictions – which I assure you, are just the tip of the iceberg. Starting with his September 5th prediction…
“Daily Update Next couple of days are huge for the bulls!! The bears last support line is to be broken ($7415) They will have no more Technical Analysis to prove their claims & the bulls will take full control & win!!”
https://twitter.com/SECRET_TRADER_/status/1037239679966437377
- SECRET_TRADER_
That post was written with Bitcoin just under $7,400 – mere hours before it plunged $1,100, all the way to $6,300. Which prompted said guru to post, exactly 24 hours, the following, chutzpah-laden post…
“EXCITING NEWS BULLS!! Due to the latest fall in price I now have enough data to analyse price trend. We now have a clear resistance and new bullish support level. We have a break out coming Very very EXCITED!!”
https://twitter.com/SECRET_TRADER_/status/1037602489305059329
- SECRET_TRADER_
Two days later, he actually claimed that despite having REKT followers with his mega-bullish call at $7,400, he had just completed his best work…and thus, from $6,447, we were just 35 days from the “biggest bull run in financial history.”
“My support line I found recently is proving to be one of my greatest finds. I used this support with the current resistance and calculated time. We have 35 days max. before the biggest bull run in financial history takes place.”
https://twitter.com/SECRET_TRADER_/status/1038364809794924545
- SECRET_TRADER_
I certainly hope he’s right – but if he is, he’s simply validating the FUNDAMENTALS I have been writing and speaking of for three years, since Bitcoin $425…and the “Hoffman Line” – i.e., a $100 billion market cap – that I identified last October as a major upside catalyst, and in February as major FUNDAMENTAL support.
Either way, he’s painted himself into a corner – as today, we’re just THREE DAYS from his prediction of the “biggest bull run in history.” Good luck, Secret Trader! However, for those that bought Bitcoin based on his last such prediction, they likely will not be around to enjoy it, should it occur.
“3 days maximum before we breakout for the biggest bull run in history! Nice tree shake and retrace back to my support line. This has become the norm. Green day tomorrow to confirm the trend and my prophesy.”
https://twitter.com/SECRET_TRADER_/status/1049915824151166981
- SECRET_TRADER_
Then there’s KING TA FUDster, who has REKT more unsuspecting “traders” than anyone in crypto. Sure, he’s been “right” at times – but from my view, far less so than when he’s been wrong. A master at hedging all possible scenarios, that he ADMITS to, he claims that simply because he follows Bitcoin, he cannot possibly be wrong.
“I've been living & breathing #Bitcoin since 2013, I quit a $150K job 4 $BTC, I not only earn my income in $BTCUSD I denominate in it (Unit of Account). I talk w/ Devs & Smartest #Blockchain Engineers Daily! Why do YOU think I mis-understand Bitcoin Fundamentals! CT is insane!”
https://twitter.com/ToneVays/status/1049982527799263232
- ToneVays
This, despite countless, unbelievably wrong calls – particularly when they matter most, like last summer’s relentless prediction that Bitcoin would likely, due to a monthly “9 count,” top in November due to, perhaps, the SegWit 2x fork. Unfortunately for followers, not only did SegWit 2x get cancelled, but Bitcoin surged from $5,500 to $20,000 between November 12th and December 17th!
Then there’s 2018 – when, since first touching the “Hoffman Line” February 6th, he has relentlessly predicted a plunge to first, $4,975; and subsequently, $1,300, as Bitcoin must be “purged” despite all it’s accomplished fundamentally. He’ll claim it’s just one possible scenario, but everyone following him knows he has become synonymous with $1,300.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1048352092526534656
- Andy_Hoffman_CG
To that end, he doubled down on his bearishness this morning, in claiming a “95% chance” of Bitcoin plunging below the Hoffman Line – which rings quite hollow, given Bitcoin’s historically bullish FUNDAMENTALS, and the amount of times he has REKT followers with the exact same call.
“That's incorrect, the chances of going under $5,800 is 95% in my book!”
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1049963814186176512
- Andy_Hoffman_CG
Who you listen to, and how you invest, is entirely up to you. But when considering TA “gurus,” consider WHY they are “advising,” not trading – particularly ones like KING TA FUDster who openly admit to NOT trading Bitcoin, and would NEVER short Bitcoin because it’s too dangerous.
In investing, the ONLY way to true riches is buying and holding – particularly in the wildly volatile, and FUD-ridden, crypto space. Bitcoin HODLing has changed lives for the better; whilst trading, in nearly all cases – particularly when following COMPROMISED and/or CLUELESS TA “gurus” – has destroyed nearly everyone that attempted it.