In numerous articles this month – even while on vacation - I have explored the various facets of the BCash-SV fork…which in many ways, is like trying to figure out how big the UNDERWATER portion of the iceberg is. While much anecdotal evidence is present; and even more speculation; PROOF is hard to come by, of exactly what’s happening.
Earlier this month, I claimed that Faketoshi’s greatest sin was the TIMING of the SV fork - during a period of both weak crypto sentiment and broad capital market weakness – in everything from stocks to bonds, commodities, and currencies. Thus, when he made it clear his goal was to destroy essentially all crypto – other than SV, of course – it dramatically increased the odds the “Hoffman Line” would break…which it ceremoniously did, right after the fork.
Whether Bitcoin-SV has the ability to destroy lame, useless Bitcoin-ABC (BCash) remains in question – as two weeks after the fork, SV’s hash rate is not far behind ABC’s, even if its “stock price” remains 45% lower. However, the vitriol and confidence he exudes has clearly worried the Bitcoin community – particularly given constant threats of knowing “inside information” about Bitcoin’s flaws and his campaign’s “trump cards.”
Clearly, the Bitcoin network has been dramatically weakened by the SHA256 “Hash War” SV has created, as Bitcoin’s Hash Rate has fallen by a massive 43% this month. Yes, the current level was an all-time high when it was first achieved just four months ago; and yes, it’s still up nearly fourfold from a year ago. However, a significant amount of Bitcoin’s hash rate is leaving – be it due to lower prices, or migration to the BCash Hash Wars…which, I might add, have likely been funded by the sale of Bitcoin by Faketoshi on one side, and Bitmain on the other.
Regarding Wright’s Bitcoin stash, it’s quite possible he is one of the world’s biggest holders – per relentless speculation about his potential involvement and/or ownership of Satoshi’s fabled, as yet unmoved one million Bitcoin holding. Then again, he may own nothing; and instead, rely on the deep pockets of his partner, Calvin Ayre - or some other sources of unknown funding, aside from Bitcoin generated by SV’s mining pools. Either way, the uncertainty he’s created – likely, purposefully – has had a tremendously negative impact on Bitcoin, and crypto in general; and frankly, until Bitcoin’s hash rate shows signs of bottoming, it’s unlikely, in my view, the uncertainty will lift.
So, to answer the question above, I believe the SV fork has purposefully or not, had a devastating impact on Bitcoin demand – so much so, it has unquestionably set back its growth for the near-term. WHEN Bitcoin recovers; from WHAT ULTIMATE LOW; and HOW STRONGLY are yet to be determined – which is why one needs to view Bitcoin as the majority of the world does right now; i.e., a highly speculative investment in a bear market, with little visibility about near-term developments.