First off, let’s get this straight. Since selling my last non-mining stock in 2002; and mining stock in 2011; I have strictly been a buy-and-hold investor, of the most conservative assets within what I deemed bullish primary trends. From 2011 through 2016, I was all-in physical gold and silver; from 2016 through mid-2017; gold, silver, and Bitcoin; from mid-2017 through late 2017, Bitcoin and gold; and in 2018, Bitcoin only.
In my role as Marketing Director of a major bullion dealer from 2011 through mid-2017, I preached the virtues of HOLDing gold and silver; and as proprietor of CryptoGoldCentral.com over the past year, HODLing Bitcoin. Not to mention, the last 18 months at the bullion dealer – which ultimately, got me fired.
Andy Hoffman (#HODLBTC) @Andy_Hoffman_CG
Since first publicly recommending #BTC in January 2016 at $425, my sole goal has been to educate of what #Bitcoin is, and why I view it to be the most important technological breakthrough of our lifetimes...alongside the internet itself, of course. NOT how to "trade" - but HODL!
3:39 PM - 10 Jun 2018
Ironically, I see my prior firm - clearly, losing market share to Bitcoin in an environment of near record-low bullion sales; is publishing blogposts espousing the exact same thing that got me fired!
Andy Hoffman (#HODLBTC) @Andy_Hoffman_CG
Here are charts depicting plunging U.S. Mint gold and silver Eagle sales.
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1005806274225684480
- Andy_Hoffman_CG
6:37 AM - 10 Jun 2018
In other words, I don’t trade Bitcoin, or encourage others to do so – but instead, to HODL it on offline hardware wallets…preferably, the Trezor. At CGC, and on the World Crypto Network, I do everything I can to highlight Bitcoin’s bullish fundamental outlook…with the occasional “technical tidbit” if it supports my conclusion, given that technical analysis is a mug’s game in which the best players are right barely half the time, whilst 90% lose their shirts. Not to mention, the huge taxes and commission fees paid to brokers and the IRS.
So, when I note that the $6,600 low of the past two days’ carnage, if it holds, would represent an extremely bullish “higher low” ($6,000 in February, $6,400 in March, and $6,500 in April) take it with a grain of salt, as it represents just one variable in a multi-faceted analysis. Or, for that matter, that according to the “Mayer Multiple” – i.e., spot price divided by the 200 DMA…Bitcoin has only traded more cheaply 6% of the time in its entire 9-year history!
https://twitter.com/Andy_Hoffman_CG/status/1006008220517711872
- Andy_Hoffman_CG
Which, I might add, is precisely the environment that large, value-seeking institutions accumulate LARGE positions in, for the LONG-TERM…as at $6,700 Bitcoin, a measly $114 million will make you one of the world’s 1,000 largest holders (likely, closer to the top 500).
Andy Hoffman (#HODLBTC) @Andy_Hoffman_CG
The lower the #Bitcoin price, the closer we get until MAJOR investors and institutions attempt to accumulate MAJOR long-term positions, dramatically tightening supply.
7:23 PM - 10 Jun 2018
The fact remains, that NO ONE knows which way the market will move in the short-term – particularly an unprecedentedly volatile asset; with an extremely thin float; amidst a WAR with the powers to be to upend the repressive, archaic monetary regime of the past 1,000 years. To that end, beware of all “gurus” that purport to “know” what’s next – particularly, those using the oldest TA trick in the book, of being perpetually “short-term bearish, long-term bullish.” If marketed correctly, you are never “wrong” – particularly if you are clever enough to pivot quickly, to the most “correct” of your recent commentaries.
As for the fundamentals, I’m still waiting for something to be worried about - $1,000 below the price Bitcoin sat at Saturday night, before plunging from $7,600 to the current $6,700. In other words, the “bear market with no bad news” continues for Bitcoin – although in my view, it cannot truly be considered a bear market unless the $6,000 low of four months ago is breached.
The MSM - and its new “partner” Zero Hedge - lamely “attributed” the plunge to the hack of a few altcoins at the world’s 98th largest crypto exchange; plus, the CFTC seeking documents from crypto exchanges regarding its already announced investigation into potential Bitcoin price manipulation. However, neither of these “news” items so much as dent Bitcoin’s mega-bullish fundamental outlook – but instead, highlight how uninformed the public remains about this revolutionary asset, including those paid to report on it - assuming they haven’t been ordered by their status-quo-loving bosses to paint a negative spin.
Yes, the altcoin 51% hash power hacks are a major issue in the near-term – but should rapidly resolve itself in a bull market environment. Irrespective, this is why HODLing Bitcoin is the best cryptocurrency strategy; the only one I practice, and recommend; and if anything, POSITIVE for Bitcoin - as it highlights how much stronger its network is than all others.
In my view, the biggest factor affecting the sector right now – from Bitcoin to the lowest-level altcoin – is momentum, as we continue to consolidate the bubble-like explosion of December and January…particularly in altcoins, where rank speculation was at its worst. That, and the specter of the Mt Gox Trustee, despite the fact that my analysis reveals he is unlikely to be a major future threat.
Yes, Bitcoin has ALWAYS been subject to boom and bust cycles – but clearly, the nascent Futures market is exacerbating the current one.
CZ @cz_binance
Many people seem to think BTC price was flat before this year, as they appear to be on the graph. To the old timers, it's the same pattern every year. Just the units on the left is different.
https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1005689649493209090
- cz_binance
10:54 PM - 9 Jun 2018
Unquestionably, launching futures contracts legitimized Bitcoin as an asset class – but in my view, the resulting volatility has been deleterious to the crypto markets…as clearly, having a derivative product that trades just five days a week, doesn’t work well when the underlying asset trades 24/7. Frankly, I deem the early results of the CME and CBOE Futures launches a giant clusterf**k, making what was already a volatile, variably liquid market even more unpredictable and psychotic.
Eventually, increased adoption; and better executed mainstream investment vehicles; will legitimize Bitcoin trading as much as the underlying technology - but for now, it simply highlights how incredibly early we are in a what will likely be a multi-decade game!