Okay, I've been going through some personal struggle, an intense internal emotional/mental battle, that's why i couldn't bring myself to write anything, but I'm ever hopeful for better days ahead. Timing was nasty because it all happened right after I started peakd, so that killed my motivation in anything except playing Diablo III and StarCraft II, but hey who gets to choose when it rains? Important is I have my umbrella through it, right?
Aaaaaand because I do not know yet in which community I should put this, for now, let me write here in my personal blog, before the ideas evaporate.
In the past few months in my FB page I've been talking a lot about inflation, energy crisis, potential food crisis, all doom and gloom.
In a nutshell, the larger-than-ourselves-kinda-problems of currency debasement (Japan OFWs I feel you), inflation, humongous wealth gap, originated from rich countries.
During the 1940's rich countries who were either WWII victors or losers suffered deindustrialization (because industrial and manufacturing bases were destroyed), and when the war was over people were overjoyed and had too much sex and thus a wave of babies came about, who in time, at their 20's sought jobs, borrowed money from banks to buy houses and cars. That created a lot of economic growth, and bond markets went into a bull run, because bonds are safe low risk assets good for future pensioners. A growing demographics played such a big factor into the mantra "study hard, work hard, marry, buy a house".
Now that population in rich countries have stopped growing, their hands are forced to attract immigrants to make up for their "labor capacity deficit", and are struggling to maintain the wealthy status of their nations, and the results are widening wealth gaps, ballooning government debt levels (due to unsustainable pension, medical, unemployment insurances and other entitlement programs), and increased financial risks endangering their retirement funds invested in mutual funds and insurance companies.
You may ask: we the younger generation, how in the world are we gonna escape these huge problems? Short answer: we can't. We can only watch these imbalances unwind in front of us, but in a very painful manner (thus the financial market crashes, the widespread layoffs when there are these crises, too expensive houses, too expensive university education, unattractive financial consequences of child-bearing, etc).
That was the long term 50yr+ trend of demographics (baby boomers created demand for goods and services, creating jobs, and creating demand for bonds for their retirement days) and geographics (globalization played a part in making goods and services cheaper, making the rich richer, the poor in poor nations a bit better. Think of call centers and offshore IT jobs in the Philippines). But today I learned a new word has been coined: psychographics.
Most of us are lonely deep inside, not because we don't have family or we are unloved, but because we simply long to be understood on a deeper level. We want to find a place where people can relate with our interests and share our passions regardless of age (demographics) and location (geographics).
One may argue this is already achievable thanks to social media. While this is true, most of what we use (FB, IG, etc) monetize our data and we don't take part on the revenues. Not that it's bad, it was good for their shareholders and executives. That was Web 2.0, the survivors of the 1990's tech bubble. Web 3.0 is the future. It's gonna be the new economy, where digital communities holding digital assets participate and are rewarded for the value they contribute. Psychographics will be the catalyst of the next mega trend, much like demographics and geographics were the catalysts of the previous but now dying mega trend.
I could be wrong, but I'm willing to bet early. After all, some problems (eg demographics, geographics, chronic toxic relationships, etc) you don't and you can't try fixing, but you can always find a way out (eg psychographics, walking away from toxic relationships, etc).
Not a financial advice: for entering the new economy, buy Bitcoin (or any other crypto you believe for that matter). for exiting the old economy, buy gold and silver.
P.S. Not saying that digital communities alone can solve global climate change and joblessness in rural Japan. I'm just saying there is hope for the younger generation, and this could be it. I mean, in the 1950's, who would have thought that 50 years later (2000's) semiconductor chips would be largely manufactured in Taiwan and South Korea? Point is, let long term trends unfold. Nothing is written in stone. You can only bet early and position yourself early, as long as the odds are in your favor.
I'll do better next time with references and charts though. 🙂