The 2017 Major League Baseball season is on pace to shatter the Home Run Record. MLB is on pace to hit over 6,000 Home Runs this season. This season will inevitability be referred to as “the year of the Home Run.”
2012- 4,934
2013- 4,661
2014- 4,186
2015- 4,909
2016- 5,610
2017 (projection)- 6,126
Not since the steroid era have we seen such a search in home runs. During this era we saw the 5,693 home runs hit in the 2000 season- the most in baseball history! 2017 Home Run Projections will crush this record by well over 8%.
What is driving this surge?
Is it a juiced ball, different swing philosophy/strategy, increased pitching velocity driving this surge? I think it is a combination of all of these.
Juiced Ball Conspiracy
It may be a conspiracy theory but pitchers across the league feel that the seams on the ball are now stitched tighter resulting in less movement of the ball as it travels from the mound to the strike zone. This allows hitters to make more solid contact.
Different Swing Philosophy
In years past, batters were encouraged to drive the ball hard to the ground. The thought being that the hard ground ball would expose gaps in the defense and result in higher on base percentages. As defense became stronger through the rise of predictive analytics they began to employ specific positioning that closed these gaps. Using analytics defenses began shifting their shortstops and Second Base players to be in the most likely area that a specific batter hits to. Many times today you will see a shortstop well in the other side of second base and you will see the 2nd baseman playing in shallow left field.
This defensive strategy severely hinders the ability of a ground ball hitter to get on base. And the batters now believe that they are just as likely or even more likely to get on base via the fly ball or line drive. They have shifted their swing to lift the ball rather than drive it to the ground.
Increased Pitching Velocity
Today's pitchers are on average, are throwing the ball at about 3-5mph harder than their predecessors. Thus, increasing the force and compression of the pitched ball at contact with the bat. The more the ball is compressed at contact, the further it will travel.
What are your theories and thoughts?