Last week's recap:
BTC @ ATH $5k
ETH @ ATH: $400
I predicted both coins would simultaneous reach their ATH and psychological walls, followed by a 20% pullback from ATH. So far this week BTC fell to about$4.2k, bounced to $4.7k and is currently retesting $4k, which is a total 20% loss from ATH. ETH fell from $400 to $300 and is sitting there waiting for BTC to make up its mind - a 25% loss. My prediction is right on the money.
There's a lot of noise in the market, with rumors and fake news to swing prices. I believe whales (especially governments) place their bets and move the line with rumors, fake news, and FUD announcements. But none of that matters as I just draw my bases and wait to buy when they've been cracked. The question to ask isn't IF the coin will spike up or down, but WHEN it does what will I do. There's no need to time the market, I just set my buys and sells based on where I see the market going.
I bought in this week with an average cost of $4275. I was considering selling around $4,500 and rebuying in lower, but honestly, it doesn't matter if I buy these two at ATH $5k/$400, or $3k/$200. Let me explain why my entry doesn't matter.
First off, this is only true because I have a small bankroll. Small is relative, but what's important is MANAGEABLE bankroll; any BTC/ETH I buy I plan to actively trade in alt coins. However, if I were completely unable to trade alt coins (illiquid market for whales) then the entry point to BTC/ETH does matter. What actually matters is the entry and exit points into alt coins - relative to BTC/ETH and not USD. I don't care to expand on this, but it's what I believe to be true.
I still have about 20% of my bankroll in cash waiting to enter closer to my $3k/$200 targets. But I just argued that it doesn't matter where I buy in... so why am I waiting? Purely because I haven't analyzed which alt coins I want to enter and at what price. Hopefully in the next week there'll be discounts in the market (like there was last week, but I wasn't able to buy in yet) for me to take advantage of. My goal is to profit 10% this next week out of my entire bankroll - including the 20% that's just sitting on the sidelines - a 10% on the full stack would mean 12.5% on my current BTC.
Prediction for the upcoming weeks: BTC/ETH will sit near $4k/$300 and then SUDDENLY drop to $2500/$200 (total drop will take less than 2 weeks). Do not buy as it's falling, catch it at the bottom, which is previous support levels mentioned beforehand.
Personal goals: Identify and trade into solid coins which have not fluctuated much during past BTC drops. To me, this means these coins have real believers who HODL and aren't easily manipulated by traders. If I'm unable to buy into alts then I'll back into fiat to rebuy cheaper, but that's a last resort strategy.
While talking to some friends about where to enter coins, this is how I analyze:
P.S. Ideally I trade based on base cracks, but a timing identifier is volume.