As expected we fell into 2430-2570 channel and keeping strong there but... we lost one big variable that was moving Bitcoin, which is BTC-e. After reading a few Greek, Russian and one Japanese (basically wrote in English, so nothing with JP but domain), articles I have more or less combined picture of how the situation looks like; For now, most of those are theories but they do make sense:
Point #1: if we look at the picture of BTC price movement back in 2013-2014 it looks quite identical to what we see now in 2016-2017. We tested the ATH around three times with no dice. Same we saw back in the first Bitcoin bear. I agree, today the situation is different and we have more money, trust, attention added to Bitcoin than before. But here's the thing - the main trigger of BTC crash back in those days was the death of MtGOX. Now we see BTC-e having major problems. Deja vu?
You know what's funny, that those exchanges are linked together now. That money that was stolen from MtGOX went into BTC-e (the big chunk of it). TADA! Now BTC-e has some real issues and considering their recent post on twitter that states that they will fix this issue within 5 to 10 days (???)... what??... well, we can see that those facts are linked, as well.
Point #2: What can we expect? Probably nothing good; I do think that exchange will get back but for that time BTC could tank quite a bit considering what buypower BTC-e had, and now BTC lost it.
There is another speculation to this. Do you remember how Bitfinex "fixed" their hack? They just waited for Bitcoin to tank so they could buy that cheap Bitcoin and pay "everything, everyone"; everything is a keyword considering how much USD value Bitcoin lost at that time.
So IF BTC-e' money that is counted as to be stolen is/will be seized - they probably will be waiting for BTC to tank again so they can get it back relatively cheap and open the exchange again.
Does that mean that Bitcoin will tank from here ever more? Hmm... It's Bitcoin, so we can't know for sure but odds of the words said above aren't on our side. That said BTC has a potential (read enough buypower) to stay in the range it is now from what we can see for the past two days. Which brings us to another point.
Point #3: The sky is not the limit. If/When BTC-e gets on track and IF we are going to be in the consolidation at that time still, we can expect a decent push UP right after the said event takes place. That can lead us to the previous ATH or even to new heights 3200-3525 window based on the previous buypower and up to 3650 if we add fibs to it.
Point one is still superior to point four unless until we get(?) BTC-e back. From their semi-official story, they are moving into another datacenter.
Point #4: The last point: Fork. This one is interesting and just as I speculated before - if you think there is no fork - there will be a fork. But now that we expecting a fork with that BCC out of nowhere, what do you think will happen next?
Conclusion:
A) Most likely BTC-e is not yet done and will be back
B) For now, odds are on the road down rather than road up as BTC-e isn't participating in BTC game; so think twice if you wanna stay in alts and BTC before this gets resolved. That doesn't mean that you need to go and dump bitcoin right NOW, no, as it's on the up move; but keep those words in mind when you'll see Bitcoin stuck and can't move higher.
C) If you like puzzles try figuring out who is/are Kim Nilsson from blog.wizsec.jp ; you gonna like this one if you know what you are doing.
Casper the Great.
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