TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- Bitcoin BTC/USDT correction analysis update
- See LINK for previous analysis 8/4/2018
- BTC is still consolidating and in an equilibrium pattern with the market at odds
- At this point BTC looks good, with multiple indicators pointing towards a reversal, but additional confirmation is needed (DAILY CHART ABOVE)
- Daily RSI is at 42 and curling upwards
- The daily candle is still forming but it is a green candle with a long wick which hit the target zone and a low of $6886
- There has been 7 red day candles in a row which hasn't happened since 2014 - the likelihood of an 8th and 9th red day is not very good
- BTC is holding above the $7000 level, but needs to break upwards past $7100 & then $7300 to confirm
- This needs to happen within the next 12 hours with significant volume
- Volume is declining and the recent drop is only a reflection of very low volume weekend trading
- The 4 hour chart (BELOW)
- Showing that another Bear Flag is forming which could mean another trip down to $6800
- $7100 is the first resistance, and then a break above $7300 will confirm the resumption of the bull trend
- BTC needs to negate the bear flag formation with a breakout
- The 4 hour RSI is at 31 and trending upwards
- Multiple wicks rejecting price below $6900
- Looking for a breakout or breakdown within the next 12 hours
- I hold my original hypothesis in tact with a target of $9500 unless a break below $6700 occurs
Risk to Reward Ratio
- Buying at the 7k level
- Risk of a -4.2% drop - if BTC drops to $6700
- Reward of + 35.7% gain if BTC rebounds and breaks past $7300 - this will confirm move up to $9500
INVESTOR NOTES:
To be clear, these notes are from the perspective of a day/swing trader. The notes above are not applicable to long term investors. Corrective price action and intermediate spikes in this market are of little or no consequence to anyone holding for long term for larger percentage gains.
- If you are an investor for the long term, all of these prices are great buy zones
- Buying at $7700, $8200, or even $9000 is of little or no consequence when you believe the price of Bitcoin will one day be $50,000 and beyond
- Good investors will accumulate over time, constantly cost averaging their positions, with confidence that current market prices do not represent the true value of the asset in the long long term (anywhere from 6months - 4 years)
- Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are still in its infancy as an asset, with only a few hundred billion in its total market cap - as compared to the trillions in the majority of all other asset classes
- Patience is key
- I am a long term BULL
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LEGAL DISCLAIMER:
I am not a financial advisor, nor is this post intended to be financial advise. I encourage you to do your own research before investing, or trading, any coin, token, stock, or security. This blog is intended for me to document my own personal analysis, charts, thoughts, opinions, trading decisions, and experiences. If you would like to learn more about trading, cryptocurrencies, and the resources I utilize to trade and invest, see my previous post - LINK.