Technical Analysis:
- Bitcoin BTC/USDT hit expected target 2months later - See LINK for previous analysis - although I have adjusted my analysis
- BTC consolidated and then over shot correction targets - targets were set for $4800-$5200
- Target has been adjusted to $3000k based on recent price action
- Originally expected a bounce from 6k to 6.5k and then down to 5k levels
- BTC instead consolidated around the 6.5k and then just dropped to the 4.5k levels (this was wave 3 down)
- Based on this, a 4rth corrective wave up is expected to 5.5k-6k levels and then another leg down ( this is assuming we have hit bottom)
- RSI is the lowest it has ever been and incredibly OVERSOLD
- When this RSI is at extreme lows like this, 2 things can be expected:
- Number 1: A corrective bounce up is to be expected and must happen - a market over-reaction, putting the RSI at extreme oversold levels like this has to level out and correct - in this case a target to 5.5k-6k (this will be strong resistance when it is tested again)
- Number 2: Market sentiment is at an all time low, meaning we are nearing the end of a bear market, confirming that we have and are in a bear market, and will more than likely continue for another 3-4 months (short time in the grand scheme of things)
- Oversold RSI (under 30) = Buy signal
- Overbought RSI (over 70) = Sell Signal
- BTC RSI is at 10 right now
- When this RSI is at extreme lows like this, 2 things can be expected:
- It is also noteworthy to understand that when one sells a Bitcoin at 4.3k that someone else has to buy that Bitcoin, otherwise that Bitcoin has no where to go... Bitcoins can't get sold without a buyer... With that said, who is buying the Bitcoin at 4.3k???
INVESTOR NOTES: To be clear, these notes are from the perspective of a day/swing trader. The notes above are not applicable to long term investors. Corrective price action and intermediate spikes in this market are of little or no consequence to anyone holding for long term for larger percentage gains.
- If you are an investor for the long term, all of these prices are great buy zones
- Buying at $8000, $5000, or even $3000 is of little or no consequence when you believe the price of Bitcoin will one day be $50,000 and beyond
- Good investors will accumulate over time, constantly cost averaging their positions, with confidence that current market prices do not represent the true value of the asset in the long term (anywhere from 6months - 4 years)
- Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are still in its infancy as an asset, with only a few hundred billion in its total market cap - as compared to the trillions in the majority of all other asset classes
- Patience is key
- I am a long term BULL
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