Bitcoin Apocalypse likely at the May 14, 2020 halving event. Sell most (perhaps not all) and go away just before the halving. We are being kicked off of Bitcoin and there is maybe nothing we can do to stop that. I posit that Bitcoin will be only for $multi-millionaires and $billionaires who are subservient to the powers-that-be.
Chris Abraham quoted something I wrote on February 27, 2014 in his article The Premium Value of Freshly-Mined Virgin Bitcoin:
The concern is not that your coin is of low morals, the concern is that the law is that stolen property can be clawed back. According to a discussion on Bitcointalk, AnonyMint laid it out:
“A large % of BTC is stolen. You are probably holding some stolen BTC now. The longer that BTC trades, the higher the percentage of theft. Eventually, all BTC will have been stolen multiple times. This is yet another reason that perpetual debasement (which Bitcoin doesn’t have) is highly desirable because virgin mined coins don’t have this stigma. The chain of ownership it is on the public ledger. All theft can later be traced ex-post facto (at any time in the future when the theft is reported and investigated). The Statute of Limitations would probably be at least 5 years.”
@luegenbaron commented on my prior blog:
Or does one have to check that the btc one has were only on legacy (1...) addresses?
How can one do that on CEX, without DEX? (cuz there aint real yet..)
I guess one basically has to trade one's segwit btc to the exchange, trade them, withdraw and look into the coins history if they were on segwit addresses anytime? If yes, repeat until one has only coins which only were on legacy addresses..?
You likely can’t utilize a wallet on a centralized exchange and expect to come out of this without losing everything.
Generate legacy addresses (those that begin with 1) on a wallet you control on your own computer or device. All Trezors have an option for legacy wallets. Send the BTC from the centralized exchange wallet to the legacy address for the wallet you control on your own computer or device.
To later transfer the Bitcoin from your wallet to someone else, then sign a transaction with your wallet and use some way to send it to the Bitcoin network. For example, Trezor includes a wallet service does this for you.
Bear in mind though that later during the posited chaos coming, if the miners’ mempool is congested, then your transaction may be delayed or never put in a block. So make sure your addresses hold significant Bitcoin (e.g. 1+ BTC) each so that when you transfer, then you can afford to include a high enough transaction fee. Bear in mind though that while the posited SegWit donations are filling up all the blocks (for months or years?) then transaction fees may be skyhigh. I have not tried to compute how high, but given the largest UTXO accounts will be taken first, initially transaction fees could perhaps be even in excess of 1 or 10 Bitcoins! We’ll see...
Is it already safe to just hodl one's btc on legacy (1....) addresses?
Due to recent epiphanies about involuntary income taxes on coming airdropped Core Bitcoin tokens and SegWit lineage tokens eventually frozen by miners, that’s no longer sufficient (archived).
As the above linked post explains, you now have to be concerned with involuntary income taxation due to the airdropped Core tokens at their pre-crash value and also inability to get any transaction accepted on the legacy Bitcoin chain after the fork-off, because of congestion due to the taking of the 7+ million SegWit UTXO which may go on for some considerable time (for months or years?). And by the time you get your legacy Bitcoin transaction onto to the blockchain, the price may have cratered into a cryptowinter again and/or the regulations and capital controls on converting to fiat may be impossible for us to navigate.
Note U.S. persons may be able to avoid the income tax due to the free Core airdrop by transferring hodlings into a Charitable Remainder Trust before the fork-off of Core, c.f. also.
The newest revelation about SegWit lineage tokens being eventually frozen comes from a recent post by the user who had created the Long-term advance notice thread:
[…] at last any coin ever moved through a sw address is frozen […]
Craig Wright recently warned that global coordination such as via the intergovernmental global agency Financial Action Task Force (FATF) will force the miners to freeze Bitcoins which were involved in crime. Craig made the very specific prediction that the Bitcoin of Chinese fentanyl dealers to be frozen in 2020. In August of this year Trump’s administration announced that Chinese drug lords are using Bitcoin. Remember China wants a trade deal and their help with impeding the flow of fentanyl to the USA is one of Trump’s demands.
They will destroy us both with income taxes for the involuntary airdrop, the inability to spend after the attack because blocks will be full of donated SegWit tokens, and then later the FATF will declare that all SegWit lineage coins must be frozen because they possibly were involved in off-chain Lightning Networks (LN) crap which is not fully traceable! Ah fuck! Why did I not think of that. Now I totally understand what Craig has been warning[foaming at the mouth] about.
The mothership FATF plus the nine (9) regional FATF affiliated groups appears to the 10 Kings in Biblical Revelation:
Regarding the fourth beast, the
ten horns are ten kings of this last and greatest earthly kingdom; the eleventh horn (king) will overthrow three kings and make war on the “holy ones of God”, and attempt to change the sacred seasons and the law he will have power “for a time, two times and a half”, but when his allotted time is done he will be destroyed, and the holy ones will possess the eternal kingdom.
Ostensibly legacy Bitcoin is how the 66.6% (enslavement by stable, super majority rule) NWO system “will come into view”, c.f. also.
Only legacy Bitcoin’s fully transparent blockchain (i.e. without strong anonymity, that even Core is attempting to augment into the impostor Bitcoin Core fork, via various proposals such as Lightning Networks, Confidential Transactions, etc) will ever be accepted by the nations of the world as an alternative to the very strong dollar which the USA has used to its advantage against the rest of the world.
Joeri Cant recently blogged Ukraine Passes Law on Money Laundering With Crypto Policy Based on FATF:
The Ukranian government has approved the final version of a money laundering law that will handle virtual assets and virtual asset service providers (VASPs) per FATF guidelines.
On Dec. 6, the Rada, Ukraine’s legislative body, published a final version of the law that considers virtual assets to be a store of wealth, while also recognizing its potential use in financial crimes, such as money laundering, fraud, and the financing of terrorists.
Applying verification to both sender and receiver
The new law includes some guidelines on how the government intends to monitor and regulate the trading of cryptocurrencies. One of the guidelines focuses on individual crypto transactions worth less than 30,000 hriven ($1,300), from which the government will only collect the public key of the sender for the purpose of financial monitoring.
However, once the transaction exceeds that amount, the government will apply verification to both sender and receiver. The process will include identity verification, as well as the verification of the nature of the business relationship.
In the past I did mention that those who lose their legacy Bitcoins “donated” to (i.e. taken by) the miners (which may include institutions such as Bakkt’s warehouse which ostensibly isn’t storing in legacy addresses) will also probably complain to the authorities claiming the miners are stealing (although technically this isn’t true, because the miners are just complying with the legacy protocol and they have no other alternative). So we can imagine the political support for the FATF to take action to regulate miners even if the legal basis employed by the FATF is not about the alleged taking of “anyone can spend”, but instead justified by compliance issues for Bitcoins with “gray” lineage.
We are fucked. Eventually only virgin mined BTC that had no SegWit lineage will remain fungible. Obtaining virgin mined BTC is trending increasingly to more difficult and costly.
However, regulation of miners by the FATF may not be in the immediate future, because 50+% of the miners must comply before such regulation can be enforced on the “decentralized” proof-of-work blockchain. The ease of regulating miners will depend on whether there’s sufficient centralization of Bitcoin mining. Presumably China would have to cooperate with the enforcement. China seems to have an incentive to regulate the miners if it will help China fight non-compliance with China’s capital controls and help China push adoption of its recently announced blockchain stablecoin (which is to compete against Libra). My guess is there will be a window of time perhaps late in 2020 or sometime in 2021 wherein legacy Bitcoins with SegWit lineage can still be transferred on the legacy Bitcoin blockchain (assuming one can pay the requisite high transaction fees). My guess is the more significant near-term threat (after the posited SegWit attack event) will be centralized exchanges refusing to cash out legacy Bitcoins that have either SegWit lineage or the hodler lacking proof-of-source-of-funds (PoSoF). Non-custodial decentralized exchanges might exist to trade tainted Bitcoin until the miners are fully regulated. Yet I’m not certain if the upcoming non-custodial decentralized exchanges support TierNolan’s automic cross-chain protocol for Bitcoin and the fixes I had proposed to the denial-of-service (jamming) flaw in TierNolan’s protocol. McAfee did mention recently that he thought we were geniuses for creating the protocol, although he may not have been referring to my and @jl777’s contribution to it.
I wrote in my recent blog Bitcoin’s Whiplash Bear Trap:
Decentralized exchanges which can never be banned, are receiving intensive development, c.f. also, also and also.
The powers-that-be are genuinely going to take back control over the entire money supply. And the money supply will be drastically shrunk to perhaps less than 5 million BTC. This will increase scarcity and cause the price to skyrocket.
So the miners who take the SegWit donations will then spend them and everyone will assume those tokens will have value because they are of course forced to be transferred legacy addresses. But later those will be frozen due to their SegWit lineage, after the miners have long since sold them.
Imagine you will have this huge involuntary income tax bill and never ever be able to unfreeze your legacy BTC to raise revenue. The powers-that-be are going to burn the fingertips of the goldbugs and cryptobugs up to their armpits.
We would be much better off selling before the halving and buying mining equipment. But again I feel this entire Bitcoin thing is just too fucking dangerous to mess with after the halving even for small-scale mining.
Sell most (perhaps not all) and go away just before the halving. Maybe thinking about mining or reinvesting in some anonymous altcoin with a clear future, if there is such a thing by then.
In short, we are being kicked off of Bitcoin and there is maybe nothing we can do to stop that. I posit that Bitcoin will be only for $multi-millionaires and $billionaires who are subservient to the powers-that-be. Something even @r0achtheunsavory (aka @realr0ach) sort of understands, although plausible and perhaps likely that a stablecoin such as Libra will be the actual 666 tracking currency for the masses with Bitcoin only being in the backing reserves of these 666 stablecoins.
My nemesis @nutildah wrote:
There is zero actual truth behind this. We're talking about a 51% attack, in which it would be retarded to think the price of BTC would come out of it unscathed. However, the chances of a 51% attack happening in BTC are next to nothing.
Even if it did happen, assuredly the bitcoin community would reorganize and go with the chain where the attack didn't happen. So "anyone can spend" would only be in effect for as long as people were willing to buy coins on the wrong chain. It would be chaotic for a few weeks, and yes, the price of BTC would plummet, along with all other coins. It could take years for confidence to rebuild afterward. However, I'm willing to bet anybody that this will NOT happen, EVER.
There will not be any 50+% attack because nothing in the legacy protocol will be violated by taking the SegWit as “anyone can spend” donations. No double-spends, no censorship and no theft from the perspective of the legacy protocol, although the FATF and the law may view the SegWit as tainted which is a separate matter. Satoshi’s immutable legacy protocol (c.f. Satoshi’s post and important discussion about it here, here, here, here, here and here) does not recognize Core addresses as being protected by any signature. Thus anyone can spend them (that is until perhaps some future FATF demand forces miners to freeze them in the future). So legacy miners will spend the donated SegWit “anyone can spend” UTXO to themselves.
The Core protocol as a soft-fork was the Trojan horse attack. The miners will be forced to mine the legacy protocol because the value of their minted block reward revenue will plummet (as @nutildah admits) due to the hard fork (and Craig selling ~1 million Core Bitcoins on exchanges to fulfill his intentionally self-imposed/feigned/fabricated court case judgement, c.f. also and also) and so the miners will have no choice but to mine on the chain where they can get extra revenue from SegWit “anyone can spend” donations to subsidize their mining profits. Actually someone should post this paragraph as an explanation to BCTalk, but do not attribute it to me because some gatekeepers at BCTalk hate for me to tell the truth there. Perhaps @OROBTC should finally be a team player and post a link to this instead of posting nonsense. But I really don’t care. Let them fool all the witless technologically illiterate fools (i.e. who lack the requisite technological knowledge) in the W.O. thread who disrespect me so much they do not even try to ask me for an explanation and instead rely on W.O. “members”. Ha! I will get the last laugh on this one.
Astute summary by @jbreher, although I doubt the technologically handicapped W.O. readers comprehend how to unpack the meaning.
Even the myopic, high pride, overconfident, precious metals bug @r0achtheunsavory (aka @realr0ach) who incorrectly slanders Martin Armstrong,¹ does at least understand the coming fleecing of the cryptobugs “is very legit for anyone with historical perspective on how governments work.”
¹ I began the factual rebuke of his lies about Armstrong in my recent blog Trillionaire Fund Manager Martin Armstrong Was Framed By Our Corrupt Government. I am planning to write a follow-up blog to detail Armstrong’s models and trading record to further refute the lies about it.