Update Feb 21, 2020

Bitcoin peaked on February 13 on the bearish cross of the rising, yellow 100 DMA under the rising, purple 50 WMA:

(click to zoom)

(click to zoom)

The developing pattern above has some similarities (and differences) in structure and key events involving moving averages to the decline from late September to November/December 2019.

The pattern from October 20 to November 18, 2019 resembles the pattern since January 30.

The instantaneous rocket shot from $7.3k up to $10.3k in late October 2019 immediately followed by a precipitous decline, coincided with the bearish crosses of the declining, green 50 DMA and then 100 yellow DMA under the rising cyan 200 DMA. Recall the decline was arrested (i.e. bottomed $6.4k in early December 2019 coincident with the bullish cross of the rising, purple 50 WMA above the declining, magenta 100 WMA.

Hence Bitcoin has been in a bullish rise with bullish crosses of the rising, green 50 DMA back up over the rising, yellow 100 DMA and most recently rising, cyan 200 DMA — along with a series of very short-term, smallish, bullish-declining, wedge, flag pattern corrections along to the way up to the recent $10.5k peak on February 13.

This last said bullish cross on February 17 coincided with significant rise back up to $10.3k before declining precipitously again.

This rise ruled out the formation of another smallish, bullish-declining wedge and instead appears to be forming a downward channel — analogous to the channel decline from $13.9k to $6.4k as I have annotated on the second chart above.

Thus the conclusion that the Bitcoin price will decline by February 27 to one of the horizontal lines I annotated on the first chart above.

Armstrong also wrote in his February 22, 2020 blog Bernie’s Victory Inspires a Panic Next Week?:

Get prepared for volatility next week. Despite the Democrat’s personal hatred of Trump, the international view is that Trump is the ONLY sane leader in the world right now. The world is leaning so far to the left everywhere, capital is deeply concerned about where to hide. The #1 question we are getting from overseas:

What if Bernie beat Trump?

[…]

Meanwhile, brace yourself for while markets next week. We may begin to see European and Asian liquidation of equities in fear of the 2020 election ahead.

The overhead resistance trend lines and timing computations are indicating a rocket shot rise in Bitcoin to between ~$11.5k and $13k in early to mid March.

The perennial Bitcoin bear and doomsday-for-Bitcoin protagonist Martin Armstrong in his blog yesterday Gold in Currencies & Cryptocurrencies, has apparently finally capitulated and admits Bitcoin may test the major downtrend line from the 2017 ATH in March and given the directional change expected I presume he implies Bitcoin could break above that major resistance level:

The two key weeks ahead are those of 01/27 and 02/17. Therefore, failure to make a new high warns that we may see a retest of support ahead. We see February is a Double Directional Change

[…]

Even BitCoin was scheduled for a rally into February and it has yet to test the Downtrend Line. Here too, March remains as a Directional Change. As far as Blockchain is concerned, I do not think that is the issue […many excuses and his continued ignorance of the issues followed]

Altcoins update

Litecoin

Expecting to buy LTC/BTC between 0.0067 and 0.0069, then sell in early to mid March on a spike to between 0.0088 and 0.0095 for a gain of between +29% to +40% more Bitcoins. Note I will take profits 0.0088 and perhaps reenter on a correction before I bounce to the magenta 100 WMA and a key overhead resistance trendline at 0.0095.

Ethereum

Expecting to buy LTC/BTC between 0.024 and 0.025, then sell in early to mid March on a spike to between 0.033 and 0.034 for a gain of between +35% to +39% more Bitcoins.

Groestlcoin

Expecting to buy LTC/BTC between 0.000019 and 0.0000195, then sell in early to mid March on a spike to between 0.000035 and 0.000037 for a gain of between +83% to +93% more Bitcoins.