I've written extensively on Bcash (BCH) and Bitcoin (BTC). I've covered everything from the fork to the EDA to BCH being a BTC accumulation mechanism for the BCH team. I've been working on Cryppick, my crypto course and community site, playing with data, and handling the things going on in my family. I'm writing this in a hospital waiting room without my formatting notes, so just ignore the typos and lack of elaborate formatting.
Some of the data I've been playing with is using Metcalfe's Law for Bitcoin valuation. As I've delved deeper into playing with this, with the end goal of creating an indicator, I've come across something I find interesting.
Data Driven Insights
- We can see that someone spammed the shit out of the BTC blockchain the past few months.
- We can see that BCH pumps were followed with large movements into BTC during price suppression by the BCH team.
- We can examine BTC price relative to Monthly Active Users (MAU's) using Metcalfe's Law. One MAU is one active BTC address in my application of it.
- The spamming of the blockchain increased MAU's significantly.
- The congestion led to a few downward price movements on the short term view but pushed BTC into a sharper uptrend on the #zoomout.
My Thoughts
- BCH was the best (and worst) thing for Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin wouldn't have gone to $20k without BCH. Their spamming of the BTC blockchain to create congestion drastically increased the MAU's and therefore the network valuation of Bitcoin.
- Without the spamming of the blockchain, we will see more natural growth as crypto gains adoption.
- If spamming resumes or MAU's drastically increase, we will see drastic growth again.
- BCH is still a shitcoin - these results were whale manipulation whether or not the price rise was intentional.
- MAU's are still in a downtrend, but have picked up slightly. MAU volume will need to pick up significantly to return to $20k.