BTC and more – 12 April

I have publicly stated that I expect BTC to drop in price soon, based mainly on an extended period of reduced volume. Perhaps BTC didn’t hear me, because so far it appears to be ignoring my prediction.

Contrary to the medium-term decline in volume, BTC has undergone a short-term volume increase and has now formed a potentially bullish converging triangle pattern. It’s a short-term pattern, so I wouldn’t read too much into it and it doesn’t invalidate any predictions of a medium-term drop, but it does indicate that BTC’s next movement is probably a bullish one.

If BTC does rise a few hundred USD in the next day or two, we will have to watch the volume closely. A protracted resurgence in volume will mean that there is no need for BTC to drop in price, whereas if volume continues to drop then I will still expect a fairly large retracement.

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

There is also the possibility that BTC may be forming a bear flag. If that is the case then BTC may just drop in price as previously predicted, but without first increasing in price. We won’t know for certain until BTC breaks out of the triangle/flag.

Made by Bit Brain with TradingView

At the moment I predict a 60% probability of a short-term price rise and I maintain a 60% probability of a medium-term price drop (of around $1.5 – $2k as described in this link).

Altcoins

In the meantime, while BTC is deciding its future, some of the altcoins have taken the opportunity to move. I have several coins which have made very significant gains during the last week. Have a look at the top performers from my CoinGecko favourites list – these are only the coins which have climbed 20% or more within the last 7 days: (ignore Snovian Space – volume is too little to matter)

From https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/favorites

That list is by no means exhaustive, some of my other coins such as Enjincoin (ENJ), KuCoin Shares (KCS), Next.exchange (NEXT) and Opacity (OPQ) have also been performing very well for at least a week, in some cases more than a month. This shows that there are gains to be made from choosing the right low market cap coins, far greater gains than in the high market cap coins. Let me say again, like I have said so many times in the past: Diversify! You can’t expect a $2Bn market cap coin to go 1000x in the next few years. But for a $2 Mil coin that is quite possible! Talking about $2 Million market cap coins…

Take a look at which coin is at the top of my list. That’s right: my old favourite of the low market cap world: CargoX! Since I have already blogged about CargoX (CXO) on about 1000 separate occasions, just search my posts of Steemit if you want to know more about it. The CXO climb has been rather steep, so I don’t know if it will continue to grow or not, but this is a much needed boost for a greatly undervalued coin which has had a torrid 2019 so far.

Thinking about it earlier, I realised that CargoX tends to fly under the radar because it isn’t on any big exchanges. It is on KuCoin, but like CargoX, KuCoin is also highly underrated and not used nearly as much as it should be. Also, KuCoin does not appear to do wash trading, which means that CargoX doesn’t benefit from any of the fake volume which most other coins do. I suppose that as new money enters the market, it tends to play “safe” and buy the big name coins on the biggest name exchanges. Hopefully as investors wise up and branch out into slightly riskier but much higher potential ROI coins, the likes of KuCoin and CargoX will receive the sort of attention which they deserve. Who would not want a coin which is revolutionising the logistics of the shipping industry, has a multitude of powerful partners and which is incredibly cheap?