The end of Bitcoin – when will the miners capitulate?
How will the dropping price of Bitcoin influence on the miners?
Let's take as example an American Hobby Miner
Let’s calculate the potential BTC mining profits using the average residential Power cost per kWh in the USA (~12.5c) and a typical pool fee of 1%.
Cost of 1 miner
The AntMiner is available for roughly $1800 up to $2400 from Amazon, or about $1365 from BitMain, shipping excluded. Power supply units will add another $120 or so to the price.
Using the simple Mining profit calculator
https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/mining/calculator/
Those are of course rough estimates.
However, if this goes true, around $6000 BTC price the mining becomes not profitable as it will take you 2-3 years to just be breakeven around $4500 BTC the miners will start capitulation because you will need 5 years just to be breakeven.
Professional miners will have to move to countries with cheaper electricity (5c in Chinese industrial areas) at $3500 BTC most miners will stop operations or else they will be mining at a loss.
The average home miner will struggle to be profitable or recoup the cost of mining hardware and electricity.
So does it mean mining will stop??
No, mining won’t stop. If some miners leave the network and the hash rate goes down, the rate of blocks found will be temporarily lower.
If all large miners were to stop mining, the mining difficulty would decrease (the magic number that determines block validity would actually increase), which means miners can now find a number larger than when large miners were mining and have the block be valid.
You should get your own mining rig. Cheap on eBay!
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