Price forecasting is a bit of a sport when it comes to the crypto crowd. Everybody likes to talk about it and have an opinion on future prices. We are often bombarded in the media and social networks by well known people talking about price predictions for various cryptocurrencies within various time ranges, but the vast majority of these predictions are point predictions, i.e. they say that the price of X will be Y by end of Z time.
Long range forecasts are great for headlines
Long range price forecasts for Bitcoin are usually headline grabbers, mostly because they almost always have incredible price predictions - at least with reference to everything normal investors would have known about in the past.
Take for example our friend John McAfee, who is well known for his promise to eat his d### on TV if Bitcoin doesn't reach $500K by 2020 - this is now confidently revised to a cool million, still backed by a the promise to eat his d### should the prediction go wrong.
Funny how fiat currencies are backed by central banks, Bitcoin is backed by John McAfee with his promise to eat his d### in TV :-)
Beside John's prediction which is pretty hard to beat on many levels, there are many other folks such as Michael Novogratz (big hedge fund investor) who made slightly less outlandish predictions such as $40K by end of 2018. Regardless of who will eventually turn out to be right or wrong, only time will tell but before the we get to that date, there's plenty of time in between and in cryptoland, even a small amount of time can hold massive changes in prices.
IF you truly believe in these folks' predictions, they could be good for long term investing, but what about the shorter term? There is of course technical analysis (TA) which is another way to generate predictions. Our friends in the Steemit neighborhood like @haejin who is a true master of this, giving daily predictions on a raft of different coins based on the Elliot Wave theory. While I find TA interesting and useful, it's also good to get some other alternative views on prices too.
What about more granular forecasts?
That's where this website for the Economy Forecast Agency (EFA) can come in really handy. According to them, they specialize in long-range forecasts for tradable assets including stocks, commodities, as well as our favorite cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ether, Litecoin, and Dash. What their forecasting gives you are monthly open, high/lows and close price predictions for a range of assets. Whether you believe their predictions or not is one thing, but I certainly find it really useful and interesting to see what way these folks predict that the prices will swing and like to compare it with reality and predictions from other sources. Why don't you check out their site and see what you make of the predictions?
Just a word of warning though, as you know with all these things in trading and investments, past is no guarantee of future performance, and what I offer here is definitely not investment advice.
Thanks for reading
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For more, you can also check out my previous blog on the future of Bitcoin prices.
So where do you see Bitcoin going in the next few months or years? I'd be interested to hear what you think.