Recently, US President Donald Trump took a softer tone regarding the tariff hike with other countries, demonstrating that they could reach a consensus by April 2.
In addition, the European Union decided to postpone the implementation of the first package of tariffs on American exports for two weeks, seeking more time for negotiations with the US. These political movements have generated uncertainty and fear among investors, bringing volatility. However, a sign of truce could be very well seen in the coming days.
Performance of Traditional Markets
On Monday, the S&P 500 rose 1.76%, while the Nasdaq rose more than 2%. Tesla (TSLA) has also shown signs of recovery after a significant 50% drop from its peak in December. Large technology companies followed this upward movement, reflecting cautious optimism in the market.
Positive Indicators in the Crypto Market
The Bitcoin cycle is not just about macroeconomics. Below, we will show you 5 indicators to help you believe that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can return to the levels seen in January of this year.
Global Liquidity
Global liquidity (blue line in the chart below), measured by the monetary expansion of 11 central banks around the world, has reached historic levels. Historically, Bitcoin tends to respond positively to increases in global liquidity, suggesting a possible continuation of the uptrend.
Bitcoin ETF Capture
Since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, over $40 billion has been raised, currently totaling $100 million in assets. After a period of frenetic outflows, since March 14 we have seen positive daily net inflows, indicating renewed interest from institutional investors, even if still timid.
Stablecoins in Circulation on the Rise
The number of stablecoins in circulation continues to grow, reaching all-time highs. In the last 7 days, approximately $4 billion has been added to the market. This increase usually precedes bullish movements in the crypto market, as stablecoins are often used as a gateway to exchanges for other cryptocurrencies.
Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index
It is a measure of the percentage difference between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro (USD pair) and the price on Binance (USDT trading pair).
Coinbase is a popular cryptocurrency exchange among US investors, especially large institutions, while Binance has a broader user base globally.
This means that the difference between BTC prices on the two platforms could indicate whether US investors are exerting more buying pressure on the market than investors from the rest of the world. A positive Premium Rate, like the one we are seeing now, indicates growing demand from American investors, which is an encouraging sign for the market, as the US is the largest economy in the world.
Fibonacci Retracement
Bitcoin recently touched the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, a point historically associated with trend reversals. This level served as support in previous corrections (May and July 2023, and August 2024), suggesting a possible resumption of the rise.
New Strategies and Opportunities
With the news that the US government is planning to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve with budget-neutral strategies, possibly funded by the sale of gold reserves, we can expect significant movements in the coming months.
In light of this scenario, we are implementing a new strategy of structured operations with options, aiming to profit in periods of market lateralization or growth. This approach includes dynamic hedging, similar to the strategies used by Nassim Taleb in the traditional market, allowing gains over time and protection against volatility.