Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency space as a whole has had a rough March. Bitcoin has fallen from above $11k to around $8k while altcoins have bled even worse as Bitcoin dominance rises.
As always, we're all looking for reasons why the market has fallen but I wanted to issue a key reminder that I (emphasis on I) still view Bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies as a bubble. Very few of them fulfill the lofty goals people have set for them, with Bitcoin in particular hardly being used as a payment mechanism because of:
- Security concerns with holding private keys
- Immutability is a double-edged sword: Returns are a pain and mistakes can't be rectified
- The UI is awful if you can't use payment request QR codes
- The fees are volatile
- While payments may settle quicker than traditional systems when the network isn't under heavy load, the fact there are no "takebacks" or ways to "correct" a mistake after settlement means that it is inconvenient for merchants to accept zero confirmation transactions
- Price is volatile
- etc.
As a result, most merchants just use processors like Bitpay which instantly convert Bitcoin into USD, which in that case, is it really accepting Bitcoin anymore? It's just another method for accepting USD.
Several of these arguments hold up for all other cryptocurrencies as well, even if some solve the issues of speed of settlement and fees. Even for cryptoassets that aim to be platforms, like Ethereum, generally offer almost no decentralized applications that have any real use. It's also worth noting that decentralization is really not well-fit for mass adoption - Normal people NEED customer support and ways to fix mistakes, which truly decentralized projects can't offer reasonably.
The point isn't that blockchain technology isn't meaningful or useful, just that these cryptoassets aren't worth even remotely close to what they are being priced as today - so price doesn't need a whole lot of reason to fall for those who feel convinced for certain that the space is undervalued.
As for some catalysts that COULD be contributing to prices coming down, we discuss:
- Mt. Gox trustee fears
- Google Ad Ban
- US Congressional Hearing on ICOs
On the positive side, we discuss the first live beta implentation of Lightning by Lightning Labs. I'm super excited to see how it behaves in practice. Based on the amount of nodes we had using Lightning prior to this, it should be interesting to see what developers do now with the Lightning Lab implementation.
It's unfortunate that this news is overshadowed by price action (and yes, I am aware that I am contributing to that), but I encourage everyone to keep a close eye on what occurs on the main net and what developers have to say.
What are your thoughts on the market? I'd love to hear them - Thank you for watching / reading!