Morgan Stanley recently noted similarities in the rise and fall of Bitcoin prices and the historical rise and fall of Nasdaq index during the dotcom crash.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/bitcoin-bust-reminds-morgan-stanley-of-nasdaq-crash-but-faster/articleshow/63377004.cms
The Nasdaq fell 78% from peak to trough, in the dotcom sell-off from 2000 to 2002.
If the similarities in Bitcoin prices and historical Nasdaq index continue, Bitcoin will bottom in the $4000's. Down almost 80% from the $20,000 peak.
Note that per Morgan Stanley analysis, Bitcoin prices are changing over time at a rate 15X the rate of change for the historical Nasdaq index.
If Bitcoin pricing continues to mirror the historical Nasdaq index and the rate of change for Bitcoin prices stay at 15X the rate of change of the historical Nasdaq , we will see Bitcoin prices back to $20K within two years.
Many similar dynamics are in place between the two crashes.
Similar dynamics will also drive the pricing recovery for Bitcoin.
Dotcom pricing in 2000 and Bitcoin pricing in late 2017 both went up in an exponential increase due to mass euphoria, as part of the hype cycle of new technology.
Dotcom prices crashed in 2000 - 2002 and Bitcoin prices crashed in early 2018 as the hype cycle was revealed. The new technology underlying the hype was NOT ready for prime time.
Dotcom prices recovered and made new highs, as the technology matured and changed the world we live in.
The internet became pervasive, starting from 2002.
Bitcoin and crypto prices will recover and make new highs, as the technology is given time to mature and will change the world we live in.
Blockchain and distributed ledger technology will become pervasive, starting from 2019.
Distributed ledger changes the world by changing the nature of trust. Third parties that currently provide trust and skim points off transactions based on their trust services, are going to be toast in the new world (e.g. banksters and many financial services companies).
STEEM On!!
DaveB
p.s. I'll be back in Jun 2019 to confirm that Bitcoin prices are back to at least $20,000