When I was a child I was often asked a question by elders “What would you like to be when you grow up?” Like any other kid fascinated by flying superhero characters, I used to say I would be a pilot.
However, I am now not so sure if I'd like to ask the same question to my child anymore (assuming there is still a decade to go until that happens). No, it's not because children often get that answer wrong in their green years. It's because with the exponential growth in automation, I don't even know the job he names would continue to exist. I wouldn't want to risk the heartbreak of my child if he ends up being too committed to a profession, only to find it doesn't exist anymore!
I seriously don't know!
Questions about the future are becoming increasingly difficult to answer succinctly and precisely.
But “I seriously don't know!” is not an answer we would want our next generation to give. If you think “To hell with them, I'm gonna chill” attitude is the way to go, well you may very well be there amidst the chaos if policies are not created in pace with the technological advancement. You will be affected as much as your progeny. The pace is that quick.
Many futurists by now are predicting a future without jobs as more and more jobs are being gobbled up by the monster of Automation. Some optimists say that is is not going to happen. They say it's the ‘Second Machine Age’. The first one raised similar questions and yes jobs were displaced but industries came up with new ones as a result of that automation.
But realists understand that it is not that simple. Earlier when a person in the Labor industry lost a job, he was advised to go to school, get training and develop an unique skill set. But this solution may not remain as effective as technology is coming after those jobs as well!
The first age was characterised by machines that could do the labor far more easily than humans. This second age will be dominated by robots coupled with artificial intelligence. The technology is becoming so good that now robots have even learnt ‘arts’- something that was mean to be a personal craft unique to humans.
As people brood over the possibility of a future with an acute dearth of jobs, there is are more elementary questions to consider.
How will we earn?
What will happen to money?
Who will get the money?
All the three questions have got to deal with the economic aspects of scientific advancement. And these questions are VERY important. Afterall, the world runs on money.
So let's try to answer each question one by one.
How will we earn?
One answer that has been making rounds quite a lot in recent times is Universal Basic Income. The proposition to give out ‘unconditional’ monetary aid that would just be sufficient for survival is getting a lot of support both from the intelligentsia and the layman.
Some suggest that if people are allowed to have money in return for nothing, it'll make them lazy. But that doesn't seem like too kind a prediction to make. I believe it will not. Because simple sustenance is not the goal of any individual. The desire to thrive, the inherent ‘greed for more’ is too strong a force to let most people lie in laziness.
And this greed is contagious! If you see your neighbor owning a brand new car as a result of the extra efforts he put in, you'd strive to do the same. Inbred competition will surely overcome any internal laziness. Afterall, doing nothing also gets boring after a while!
So yes, Universal Basic Income sounds like a good idea for the time being.
What will happen to money?
This is another very interesting and pertinent question to ask.
With the rise of cryptocurrencies that need not be governed by central financial institutions, money is a question we seriously need to consider. More so because up until the dawn of this second age of machines, jobs and money have been and will continue to be inseparable intertwined.
As automation continues, funda of Job equals money may no longer hold true. If this be so, will there be a system of points governed by the goodwill, social status/contribution or perhaps exchange of services? I believe there is a good possibility of this.
Money continues to dominate because people perform jobs that hold important value in the functioning of the ‘sustenance’ economy. The amount of money you get is in direct correlation to the contribution your services make in the success of the institution which further functions in the broader economy. This is the reason why a day laborer layering bricks earns less than an architect drawing up bridge diagrams on a piece of paper. The house he is building holds less importance than the bridge that will end up saving countless hours of work for general public.
In an age where most of the jobs that are important to the economy are performed by robots, where would it leave us and the money??
And more importantly, how would we adjudge what amount should be paid to whom when we are performing services that may not hold any economic value?
One might argue that it is an errored thought to presume our role in economy will be entirely absorbed. Yes, I agree but it will surely diminish a lot more. One clear indication is the tremendous growth of the media industry in recent times. As the societies integrate more and more, we are opening ourselves to newer experiences and are even willing to pay for it. Ask Netflix!
It is important to note that, while media industry is a part of the package of the economy, it is worthy to be noted that it doesn't play a direct role in human sustenance. Food industry plays a much bigger role.
As automation increases and robots purge our jobs, it is the creative fields like the entertainment industry itself will be an avenue where humans will find a role to play. One may ask, we are doing it even now, it is still a part of the economy and it gives us money so what will be different then?
The difference would be that unlike now, the sustenance industries and the entertainment industry would be run by two different species. The former by robots and the later by good old humans. Today the economics of the sustenance industry governs the entertainment industry. Would it be the same when robots take over?
It is very possible that humans develop a goodwill operating system that will grade humans based on who they are what others feel they contribute to society. This grading system would then decide the access to the quality of services we access. However, it may result in a future full of anxiety as beautifully portrayed in S03E01 of Netflix’s popular series “Black Mirror”.
Now to go from crypto-currency to a goodwill currency is a long stretch . I understand, but we have to consider all possibilities.
Time for the third question.
Who will get the money??
This question depends on what relationships Robots share with humans.
In a world where both function autonomously, it'd be no longer in our hands to dictate what currency they prefer. This idea assumes a world where artificial intelligence has become so powerful that robots no longer depend on humans for their functionality. Such a world looks like straight out of sci-fi movies but it is a possibility. Will humans allow that? Now that's the important question everything depends on.
In a second scenario where robots operate at the whims of humans, I see the possibility of a world where humans get the money for the work of humans. In this world humans can buy a robot of their choice based on the goodwill credits they collect, and spend them to the make what would be the most important investment of their life- Robot. However, it would be stupid to think that each person will get a robot. It would not only be impractical but unnecessary. Robots being more efficient at things, a single one would easily replace 5-6 individuals which is more than the modern family size.
Other than the goodwill points owning a robot would give humans special points that could be spent on all the luxuries and specials services. These points shall have more value than goodwill points and can be taxed per robot by the governments. The taxed special points would be then used by governments to provide social services for its citizens, who in turn will avail them through goodwill points or for free as per the policies.
The beauty of this world is, an increase in inflation, i. e. higher value of special points would mean that people are actually becoming more humane. Simply because as people do more good acts, there will be a need for the government to supply more goodwill points or else the dearth of it will make people go paranoid. As they gain more goodwill, the robots would become expensive, that are in turn the source of special points.
This is just one version of the future. And it is just a crude idea. But a general discussion needs to be held to discuss the various possible models of the future. For one thing is certain, the world is changing quick and we need to adapt quickly.