BITCOIN - Where are we at in the 5-wave market cycle? BIGGER PICTURE
Hello guys, I know I have been quite inactive for the last few months, but maybe I will start posting some more TA related content. And what better way starting off would there be than sharing my opinion on where we are with bitcoin in the grand scheme of things!
Firstly, I am sure most of you are aware of the fact that many, many people offer a quite similar outlook: We supposedly are in wave 2 of 5 and about to start the 3rd wave.
Now, I am not here to tell you what everyone else is telling you! That's a first.
Secondly, I am not offering you some of my alternative counts but my primary one, the one which I deem to be the most likely scenario.
MY COUNT
Wave 4 and 5 are just arbitrary, make no mistake about that.
If you do not know the set of rules that are stated in the wave-theory, you can just look them up somewhere else, like I said: I am not here to repeat what thousands already said.
How do we proof, that our count is valid? - By counting subwaves! So let's look at wave 1 first.
wave 2:
This one played out as a triple combo wave (WXYXZ). Every X signals a failed breakout that would be the start of wave 3 IF successful.
On wave 3 I will show you a smaller degree count of the impulses to validate my bigger degree waves:
Wave 1 of 3:
Wave 3 of 3:
Wave 5 of 3:
CONCLUSION
As we just counted, there are two sets of impulses finished at the largest degree of trend, which would suggest that we are in wave 4 right now, not in 2!
Apart from that, the complex correction (WXYXZ) for wave 2 makes this count more probable than the counts stating that we supposedly still are only in wave 2 at that same degree of trend.
What does this mean for us?
IF this count is in fact correct, then we would only see one more impulse to make a wave 5 before seeing another huge correction!! So we have to carefully assess the 5th wave as it is forming TO COUNT THE SUBWAVES! And as the fifth wave approaches you should start setting your selling-ladder up.
How high will this wave go?
Well, this is pretty much impossible to predict!
Normal way of approximation:
Wave 1 and 5 often have a 1:1 ratio. Does this work here?- No it does not, as a new trechnology comes along it is possible, that wave 3 is a lot more than 1.618 of wave 1. Therefore you cannot gage wave 5 this way!
What are the most likely scenarios then?
Since I still think that the market is insanely bullish medium term, a truncated fifth where we don't even get all the way up to the all time high is pretty unlikely. Same goes for a double top. So it is quite safe to say that it will exceed the all time high, but how far will it go?
An extended fifth wave is definitely not impossible so numbers around 40k are certainly not beyond any reason!!
(that would be at about the 1.618 fib level if we assume that the ongoing correction is done)
I hope you liked this post! An upvote would be very much appreciated :)