Like I said countless times...
Not going to happen.
Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | $200 | $400 | $800 | $1600 | $3200 | $6400 | $12800 | $25600 | $51200 |
2020 Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6933 | $7467 | $8000 | $8533 | $9067 | $9600 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10133 | $10667 | $11200 | $11733 | $12267 | $12800 |
Do you think you've been priced out of the market?
Bitcoin has been trading above or at the doubling curve for 7 years. It took a worldwide economic shutdown to crash below it, and look what happened. It only took seven weeks to bounce back. We are trading at fair market value once again.
We have not been priced out of the market; we are trading at the ground floor. I expect a bounce up off the doubling curve near the $8500 level. The chance that we stay above the curve at this point is high. Setting stop-losses below the curve is an extremely safe play just in case another major worldwide event occurs.
However, another devastating worldwide event might not even effect Bitcoin. We've reached a place where the world is starting to wake up to the fact that there are no other options. In a world of unsustainable fiat policy, Bitcoin may be the last currency standing with the highest liquidity and security.
Bitcoin is my new stable coin.
- Hive is volatile and unsafe.
- Steem is unsafe.
- Ethereum is slightly bubbled from Eth 2.0 speculation.
- Litecoin is a wildcard.
All of the projects that I value are risky right now, except Bitcoin. We've seen before how Bitcoin can crush the alt market. That very well may happen in the near future. With Bitcoin going up, it seems to be bleeding Hive and pushing it lower just like the last time from March to May 2019 when we were trading around 40-50 cents (up from 22 cents). I'm looking to start buying Hive again at the 2500 sat level, which would require a crash of 50% in relation to Bitcoin (which might end up not being much, if anything, in USD).
However, there are some very bullish market orders right now. On @bittrex I see a 109k buy order at 4600 sats. There is also a 174k buy order at 4000 sats. On @binance-hot there was a huge buy order yesterday for even more (now gone), but the market still has 170k liquidity down to 4000 sats. That's basically a half million coin buy wall. Pretty bullish.
On the other hand, those orders can be taken away at any time, and Hive powerdowns are just starting to unlock funds due to the massive pump we had (which started exactly a week ago). Hive is still EXTREMELY volatile right now and very risky with potentially high reward. My powerdown completed yesterday and I dumped it into Bitcoin to maintain stability now that I am no longer using stable-coins. I'm also holding a tiny bit of HBD and keeping my blogging rewards as HBD as well.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory
Chaos theory is a branch of mathematics focusing on the study of chaos—states of dynamical systems whose apparently-random states of disorder and irregularities are often governed by deterministic laws that are highly sensitive to initial conditions. Chaos theory is an interdisciplinary theory stating that, within the apparent randomness of chaotic complex systems, there are underlying patterns, interconnectedness, constant feedback loops, repetition, self-similarity, fractals, and self-organization. The butterfly effect, an underlying principle of chaos, describes how a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state (meaning that there is sensitive dependence on initial conditions). A metaphor for this behavior is that a butterfly flapping its wings in China can cause a hurricane in Texas.
Small differences in initial conditions, such as those due to rounding errors in numerical computation, can yield widely diverging outcomes for such dynamical systems, rendering long-term prediction of their behavior impossible in general.[5] This can happen even though these systems are deterministic, meaning that their future behavior follows a unique evolution[6] and is fully determined by their initial conditions, with no random elements involved.[7] In other words, the deterministic nature of these systems does not make them predictable.[8][9] This behavior is known as deterministic chaos, or simply chaos. The theory was summarized by Edward Lorenz as:[10]
Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future.
Chaotic behavior exists in many natural systems, including fluid flow, heartbeat irregularities, weather and climate. It also occurs spontaneously in some systems with artificial components, such as the stock market and road traffic.[13][3] This behavior can be studied through the analysis of a chaotic mathematical model, or through analytical techniques such as recurrence plots and Poincaré maps. Chaos theory has applications in a variety of disciplines, including meteorology, anthropology, sociology, physics, environmental science, computer science, engineering, economics, biology, ecology, and philosophy. The theory formed the basis for such fields of study as complex dynamical systems, edge of chaos theory, and self-assembly processes.
Deterministic Chaos
The patterns of the stock market and Bitcoin follow the rules of deterministic chaos. There are many variables, and when you change even one a tiny bit the entire system can produce a vastly different result. If one is trying to project the future, the more time goes by the more incorrect the extrapolation will be.
Strange attractors and the Butterfly Effect.
Watch the pendulum carefully. We can see that given the right momentum the end of it gains massive force and whips around for a bit. That is exactly the situation Bitcoin is in right now.
The COVID fiasco (actually a greed fiasco) caused all longs to get liquidated and Bitcoin to crash 50% under the doubling curve for the first time in seven years. As we see time and time again, these low bottoms create the momentum to spin up to the moon.
We are entering the perfect storm where the halving event and the economy reopening are going to occur around the same time. Not only that, but everyone was expecting a halving pump/dump before this event, therefore we loaded up debt and went long. All these longs have been liquidated and put us in a position to catapult to all time highs, easily and soon. Even after more than doubling in value after 7 weeks, the bottom is in today.
May ATH
Mark my words, the recent actions of Bitcoin today and yesterday tell us that we are going to all time highs within 60 days (probably less than 30). As I am writing this we are literally bouncing off the $8500 doubling curve just like I said. I predict in three weeks we'll be peaking.
Can't be true, didn't happen before.
This is why I bought up chaos theory. A lot of analysts are using the halvings of the past to guess this one. This is a very bad idea, because the variables of this halving are quite unique, and we only have 2 other halvings to look at, both of which also had unique variables and both did completely different things.
First halving
The market didn't know the first halving was that bullish. Nothing happened. The fundamentals of the halving pushed Bitcoin to ATH and the market did not realize what happened until after the fact.
Second halving
The market knew the halving was bullish, this variable caused a different outcome. The market tried to price in the halving and failed miserably (because you can't price in fundamentals before they happen; there will always be a dump). Once the market dumped post halving the market stopped trying to price it in and thought it was a dud. It only took a few months later for the price to start spiking out of control due to the trampoline effect caused by the previous dump.
Third halving
Once again, we have completely unique variables. History will tell us nothing. The dump happened before the halving instead of after. The Fed has declared infinite QE: the exact reason why Bitcoin exists. The aftermath of this economic disaster is going to push dozens of failed desperate countries, central banks, corporations, and citizens into the arms of crypto. Because Bitcoin has the most liquidity, this is the obvious first choice.
Speculation
If this pump were to mirror the BAKKT speculative pump and dump (this volcano pattern we see over and over again) then after three weeks of pumping we'll cap out at around x3 the doubling curve. At the end of May, the curve would be around $9k, pushing Bitcoin up to the $27k region and generating massive hype before crashing back to the curve.
This also assumes that the hype generated here was comparable to institutional investment in Bitcoin. If I had to guess the situation we're in is a lot more bullish, implying a x3-x5 pump. On the other hand, our correlation to the stock market could bring us back to reality, so who knows. On the other hand again... if stocks are bleeding and Bitcoin just went x2, money from stocks might flow into Bitcoin. Too many variables. This is why we cost average, or wait for the peak and then dump at the next dead-cat-bounce.
Bitcoin is more predictable.
I posit that Bitcoin is even more predictable than other chaos driven events like weather and the stock market. The halving event puts the entire system on 4 year cycles. The doubling curve appears to be insanely accurate.
This makes sense, because Bitcoin has been something the world has needed for a long long time now. Fiat has been corrupted and leeched beyond all repair. The need for decentralization is no longer optional; Our survival depends on it. Therefore, we can depend on these cycles and patterns. Bitcoin is the lifeboat that will keep us alive when this Titanic economy sinks into icy waters.
Conclusion
This is not a time to be bullish. This is a time of extreme hardship and tough decisions. However, I think the decision to enter the market now is not a tough one to make.