Analysis of past week:
The network did expect a correction and we finally got the start of it. The network strategy was optimal.
I am comparing three strategies, first hold fiat and make a small profit elsewhere, hold bitcoin, or follow the network predictions. Since I started documenting my predictions on the blockchain these strategies compare as
Fiat with a weekly profit of 0.5%: 16561.14$ (up 0.5 %)
Holding BTC: 9529.79$ (down 10 %)
Network strategy: 11161.81$ (up 0.5 %)
Starting capital: 11497.40$
The neural network has gotten a small edge above holding bitcoin. Fiat with 30% annual interest is still preferred.
Forecast:
Red areas are predicted below the current price, blue/yellow areas indicate the expected passive growth, green areas are better than the expected growth. The vertical line is one week into the future and its size provides the prediction variance. The network prediction is smooth as the random noise is filtered out.
The network predicts that the correction is not completed yet and expects another week of losses, however with large volatility.
The network slightly prefers fiat over bitcoin for the next week, so the strategy will remain sitting on fiat for now.
This post is not financial advice! I am testing the potential to use neural networks for price predictions and am documenting my results on the blockchain to have provable public results. All prices are based on 0:00 UTC for consistency!