Bitcoin climbed out of the bear downtrend channel established since mid-Jan to early Feb's brief climb before reversing. Now, the downtrend channel is acting as support. We're still in neutral trading territory being in and around the Kumo, but this is a major step in the right direction for confirming a new bull trend is in the makings.
At the moment, we're trading inside a bull ascending wedge and journeying towards the apex of that wedge.
Zooming out on the same four hour chart, we can see this more clearly:
There's a lot of information on this chart, so bear with me.
- First, there's the inverse head and shoulders pattern to which the right shoulder is still in the process of forming.
- Second, the converging blue lines outline the bull ascending wedge.
- Third, price action is on top of the downtrend channel and around the top of the Kumo. We may continue down and touch the blue support line.
- Fourth, even if we breakdown a bit, we're likely looking at a convergence of support keeping us from free-falling to $8k USD or lower. Namely, the dotted green line which connects along multiple points going back as recently as November 12th, but to Oct's low and Sept's lows, as well a confluence of EMA 20, 50, and 200, not to mention riding on top of the Kumo cloud.
- Lastly, the horizontal channel outlined with red border lines is where the price wants to be based on volume to price. We're trading above the largest volume bar and head and shoulder's fractal top is also in agreement with the second longest bar acting as future resistance when we return to that territory.
What I'm watching for is volume to continue to climb and for price action to bounce inside this wedge, either completing the inverse head and shoulder pattern and exiting early, or flowing into the apex of the wedge before breaking to the upside.
We can still go down since the volume, while certainly up lately, isn't overly strong, yet. I believe many continue to watch and wait before opening new positions. It's too early to say the bulls have definitively returned, especially as MACD has slight bear formation and curling downwards (not pictured), but there's a lot to like about the recent developments.