The bottom is, in my humble opinion, not in. Looking back at the price action of BTCUSD in early 2014 we can take a look inside the most recent long term bear market and use that as a reference for our current bear market in bitcoin. Bitcoin and crypto has seen a massive influx of new investors and frankly what we in the space refer to as 'dumb money'. They came in thinking that bitcoin could only ever go up and so they bought and bought until their bags were full and their wallets empty and not long after they finished their New Years eve bash and they notice that they are feeling lighter. They reach into their pockets and pull out their crypto bags to realize that they are disinagrating before their eyes. Now many have sold their bags holdings and it has caused the fall in price, but what we have not seen yet is the mass exodus style selling that comes only from the weary and teary eyed young gamblers that flew to close to the sun and got burned by the aura of infinite lambos and mad riches. When these poor souls sell they are selling it to the whales that have already sold a good amount of their coins and now are waiting paitently on the sidelines for the weak minded to putter out and hand them their heavy bags for next to nothing. Those who tell you to HODL are probably the same ones who have already sold of a decent % of their holdings up above 10k now they are looking for a new base to accumulate coins from. There are three basic cycles to every market and they can be seen in just about any chart. They are the Accumulation Phase,
Seen in the trading range of about $300-200 marked by black s/r lvls. Another sign of an Accumulation Phase is the sideways and below average volume . Majority of the volume is Whales and small enthusiasts like myself who dont care about price action (atleast at the time) This nearly year long period back in 2015/16 was the latest accumulation Phase. Finally it broke out of its 100 dollar range on MASSIVE VOLUME!
Here is an in-depth view of what the Public Phase contains
This is when your buddy probably told you about how he heard about some guy who made tons of money in crypto so you and him should think about doing it. This is where many of the timid retail investors start to trickle in slowly at first. Testing the waters 0.00% and swimming with the new found Bull. But once these timid retail investors start making some money they get very loud quickly and all of a sudden more and more people start funneling in pushing the price higher and higher at greater rates. Until the Whales decide that they are ready for their long awaited pay day and they start selling into the buying madness that has ensued. This will cause ripples in the price as all of the coins which were bought up much much lower are sold for tens of thousands of dollars. This is a new Phase known as the Distribution phase and for obvious reason.
here the whales distribute coins to the retail gamblers stopping new ATHs from being hit and soon lower highs and lower lows follow.
This results in a sell of and eventually once there is blood in the streets you start buying again even if its your own blood, as a famous Rothschild once said.
But how do we know when there is blood in the streets???
Look for the volume to tell you. IF your not a whale learn to whale watch. ANd follow those whales. the largest daily Volume spike in the history of bitcoin was at the bottom in the early days of 2015 below $200 a coin. Wait for a similar volume day before you try to catch this falling knife known as bitcoin.
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