Whenever bitcoin is sliding, everyone likes to look for a reason as to why, myself included.
However, there may not always be a reason or sometimes there may be a multitude of reasons.
Basically, people tend to look for some form of comfort in times of extreme emotional stress, which is what often happens as people watch their hard earned dollars quickly slipping away.
Putting all of that aside, there does seem to be some real emotional reasons why bitcoin is sliding currently.
First you have the seasonality aspect.
What I mean by that is that over the last 3 years, and 4 out of the last 5, bitcoin has made lows in the month of January.
This is likely due to the Chinese Lunar New Year and also possibly some tax related selling.
For a little more on the first topic, check this out:
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@jrcornel/february-16th-is-a-very-important-date-for-the-cryptocurrency-markets
Secondly, you have major governments around the world coming down somewhat hard on cryptocurrency exchanges and users.
Think South Korea, Japan, and now India all talking about tighter regulations within their respective countries towards cryptocurrencies.
More about that can be read here:
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@jrcornel/looks-like-no-crypto-trading-ban-in-south-korea-after-all-crisis-averted
It seems every couple of days there is some new negative headline in the press about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. That represents a much different environment than what we had a few months ago.
Finally, and likely most importantly, you have a bunch of FUD (Fear Uncertainty and Doubt) about what exactly has been going on with Tether.
After watching it's two major banks dissolve their relationship, as well as their auditor hightailing it out, and an investigation by the CFTC, combined with cries from the public about suspicious trading activity, there is certainly a fair amount of smoke around tether and bitfinex.
And as you know, where there is smoke, there is usually fire.
Add all that together and you get an environment that is just waiting for the next piece of negative news to drop prices even lower.
Here's the thing though, this won't last forever, in fact I would venture to say we are getting close to a bottom.
For one, we are getting closer and closer to the Chinese Lunar New Year. The exact date is February 16th, but historically most of the bitcoin selling related to that tends to dry up a few weeks before the exact day.
Also, every day that goes by gets us one day closer to people getting their tax returns back here in the US. When people who felt they missed out late last year start getting their tax returns, where do you think they may put some of that money?
Also, a lot of the chart technicians have been pointing to a move down to around $8k for some time now. They also indicate that is likely a bottoming out point as price finally finds significant support.
Also, even if Tether ends up blowing up and things are as bad as some people think, we are talking about a $2 billion dollar market compared with a $500 billion total market cap. Yes it is a big deal, but in the grand scheme of things, it's not that big of a deal.
And finally, if you look at the trading activity on Bitfinex you can see that the BTCUSD shorts now exceed BTCUSD margin longs.
This is the first time I have seen that... well ever.
This is a good indicator that many people are finally getting on the same side of the trade, which is what you often see before major market reversals.
Given all that information we may be getting close to finally seeing some green on our screens again.
Could all of this be setting up to create the perfect storm/buying opportunity?
No way of knowing for sure, but I feel much better buying here than I did buying on the way up at this same exact price.
**Full disclosure, I bought more BTC a few minutes ago around $8,900 to add to the others bought around $10,700. I will look to continue to add if prices continue to dip.
Stay informed my friends.
Image Source:
https://vinevillemethodist.com/2017/10/06/why/
Follow me: @jrcornel