We have a had a tremendous bull run since the summer of 2015. And this year a correction has been going on that started in December.
I see a clear decending triangle, that btc seems to refuse to breake out of to the bottom. That is if we look at it in log view.
If we look at it in non log it looks to me like we actually just broke out of it now (and with now I mean last week).
The TSI (True Strenght Indicator) has given us a clear buy signal. Additionally I can find a 5 waves count to complete a downturn.
This is quite bullish to me. This is looks like one of those perfect and ultra profitable break out trades, that work so well in crypto.
The Bear
Bitcoin has been in a bear market for about 6-7 months now. This is my third bitcoin bubble so I was certainly not entirely surprised on how this happened.
I did however expected more of a bubble explosion than what we had towards the end of 2017 so certainly was surprised a bit and fell short on spotting the best shorting opportunities.
On the flip side it would be weird if this bear market would just be over at this time. It looks like 2014 all over again to me.
However I do consider it a possibility that the market has matured quite a bit and as a result is a bit less volatile than it was 2011-2015. This could mean that the bubbles would not explode and crash quite as much as they used to.
Is the bottom in?
The question right now is to me:
a) are we forming a bottom. This means market is more mature and we are heading into the S of the S curve soon.
b) are we just going to dead cat bounce and further downside will happen
In 2014 we had a similar situation as we have right now: we retraced from $1200 to $400 below to 200 MA, then we rallied back to that 200 MA failed to break thru and then fell all the way below the $200 mark, before we finally started the bull in 2015.
The question is now: are we at that first point, where the next run is just going to allow us to crash for real or have we found the bottom of this correction?!?
How I see bitcoin right now
To me it looks like the current correction is likely at its end and as a result I have been looking to go long. In fact I went long a bit too early. 
I was just about to cut my losses, when bitcoin turned around last week. Since then I have been feeling more confident about my decision.
The big question is: which bubble?
As outlined above the question for me right now is simply if this is just a short term correction, at which point I expect us to go anywhere from 8k to 12k, but most likely close to the 200MA ( roughly around 9k) and then fall off again to 5, 3, or 2k mark. Many analysts like Tone Vays have been putting these szenarios on the map all of this year.
Alternatively I could imagine that the crypto, while being in a market downcycle has been gaining so much strength that we are now pulling into the crazy part of the S-Curve.
In short I see both szenarios as quite likely outcomes. I feel in the long run crypto is growing massively. All in all it seems to be safer and more normal to be cautious and point out analogies to 2014, like this tweet does:
But the biggest mistakes I think we can do with this market is to underestimate its potential. As such I look for any opportunity to go long. As such right now I am long, besides my standard #hodl portfolio. I will watch when I need to protect my profits, but at this point I see good upside at least in the shorter term.
Good Luck and What are your thoughts
I would love to hear what you are doing currently? Are you shorting are you waiting? Or are you investing?
And especially why are you doing whatever decisions you have made?
I look forward to your comments and reponses
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