Number of Steemit-Visitors goes up again!
It was a long, long Crypto Winter, not only prices are green. Maybe this is a good sign:
for detailed information and user statistics visit similarweb
For Steem dAPP statistics visit Steemapps.com
How to calculate Steem´s "safe Zone"
| For my price valuation I use metcalfes-law. A simple scientifically validated fact, that says that the value (V) of a communication network is V=n². For Bitcoin and Ethereum it is quite hard to estimate the number of active users, but for Steem or Eos or any other dAPP-Chain you simply take the amount of daily active users (probability for multiple-accounts is higher in the monthly user base) and put a bot- and project account margin on top of it. Lets assume 25%-50% (sounds a lot but gives us a margin of safety). So we get 5000-7500 active unique users. Now apply V=n² (simply square it): |
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The bottom- or minimum fair-value for Steem after Metcalfe is: 25-56.25 Million USD which gives us a mean of $40.63 Million :).
and the actual value is... $43,795,333 USD... congratulation Steemians we are in the safe zone. This is only a dynamical attractor where the system should be - a safe zone (as long as the number of users is stable). NO FINANCIAL ADVICE!
Statistics - the one Bitcoin Prediction which actually could be true
Crypto-Youtube is the most unlogical field. You all know the digital gold narrative right? You know the story that information is priced in to the market? You probably also know about the halving narrative: "After each halving they price of bitcoin has increased."
Now the Stock-to-Flow Model by @PlanB says that Bitcoins price correlates to 99% with its scarcity (Stock = what is already there --> divided by flow (12.5 BTC per Block)). People claim that A) Stock-to-Flow is true and B), they are not sure if the halving is already priced in.
when you say Bitcoin should be worth ~100k after the halving...THEN HOW IN THE WORLD should it be priced in?
Yes, Efficient Market Hypothesis means that all information is already priced in. But "Information" means, >>all verifiable facts<<. Is your crazy 100-trillion-USD-Bitcoin-story a fact??? (maybe 😏 )
As you can see the correlation with 94% is really high. The r² is at 0.94, this means a >>perfect fit<< 🙌.
You know what else makes a perfect fit? 🙃 The correlation of:
- divorce rate in saine and the per capita consumtion of magarine (99% r=.99 !)
- USD spend on Science and suicide by hanging (99.7% r=.99 R.I.P.)
- Cheese consumption per capita and number of people died by being tangled in their bed-sheets (94.7% R.I.P.).
But wait, there is another statistical measurement. Correlation just means "have the same trend" ...of course this does not imply causation. When two people go up the stairs, you don´t assume that they are a couple right? But what if they exactly-synchronously follow each other, step for step? Holding hands? Then we use tests like Co-integration 🙌 and if they do, well then they are probably not coincidentally using the same stairs (this is dynamics)...a real prediction on the other hand --> is another story: holding hands does not mean, that they end up in the same apartment or even the same bet. Yes, Bitcoin is co-integrated to its scarcity 💞 (see analysis of @Nick) but since the future is not a verifiable fact... why should this be priced in? So in my opinion, thinking a bit deeper about this is a huge opportunity. But never FOMO.
Was Satoshi originally working for the Poker Industry?
Some of you might have heard that there is Bitcoin pre-release code in which there is a poker-application and something like decentralized e-bay.
[full code on sourceforge.net]
From: Satoshi Nakamoto Date: Tue, Apr 14, 2009 at 7:41 PM To: Mike Hearn
| "I started implementing a marketplace feature earlier that facilitates offering things for sale and taking orders, it’s only half done though. A bit like e-bay but without auctions, just “buy now”. Among other things, it would make it easy for anyone to offer currency exchange." |
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The online Poker Industry at that time really had a huge censorship problem, could this be the initial motivation of Nakamoto? So, that he only took the chance and used the banking problem of 2008 instead...because it cached more attention?...wait wasn´t Craig Wright a professional Pokerplayer? 😏....semi srs 😉
2020 🎉 resolution, reach more people outside of steem(it)?
I´m getting old, I still believe in static html web-pages. So my goal was to create a web-page. I´m old...but not naive. Of course I know:
because nobody cares about static html pages. This is 2020, the static internet slowly dies out. Mostly it is about P2P-Networks and Apps. Using new stuff like Steem(it) is never wrong. Those Apps can explode over night. But you also cant get around the big three (Facebook, YouTube, Instagram), thats where the attention is.
but there are also Apps like Tik Tok. The fastest growing App. Like, 500-million users (half the user base of Insta in a few month). It is a young app, like most apps, early adopters are around 20 years old. Those apps like Vine or Periscope or SnapChat are not really used by people over 30. It is all about dumb, short videos of 15 second length. But...if your brain sometimes outputs dumb, 15 seconds long thought-pieces, this is a opportunity. The App has many users and not so much content. Of course, it could die as fast as it came, but to transfer users to your other channels it is great. The biggest YouTubers started with apps like Vine.
After all of this, a website still can be useful. But first, one has to be on social media I assume.
Neumorphism an old new design-trend?
The older generations probably remember the first WINDOWS interfaces. To build a bridge between the 3D world and the new 2D user-interface world, they made buttons appearing "3d" so that it is intuitive (Skeumorphism). Today most stuff is 2D. We know what a button is...
Now designers are predicting that this will be the new UI trend. Nice? Or distracting? Im not sure. 🤔
New Game on the Chain
After DrugWars and NextColony we will see a new game on the chain. It is called "Holy Bread". It is not released yet. I´m not an RPG gamer but many of you are, a good (german) description can be found here and the official post here. As far as I understood it is free. However, Games have become an important part if not the most important aspect of dPOS Chains.
and now finally Ultra an EOSIO fork (not Eos mainnet!) has announced that the big Game developer Ubisoft is going to adopt blockchaintechnology and tokenisation source but as long as there is no official statement from UBISOFT I am skeptical.
So for now, thx for reading and lets enjoy the green market or simply have fun creating content
