A number of updates to the Bitcoin node software, aimed to improving the networks capacity, are set to be activated in the coming days and weeks. This could end either in a smooth upgrade, a potentially difficult split of blockchains, or nothing interesting happening at all.
While the odds are that at least one of the proposals will trigger, it can not be foreseen which of these will be. That means that for the moment now (end of July 2017) your best bet is to check for the status of the blockchain(s) whenever you want to transact or trade with bitcoin.
Let us have a look at the different versions of bitcoin software right now that might split into their own chain:
Proposals
(courtesy of CoinDesk)
SegWit2x (BTC1): Backed by miners and startups, this proposal seeks to enact SegWit via a soft fork, while committing to a block-size increase by hard fork three months later.
Segregated Witness (SegWit): Proposed by volunteers of Bitcoin Core in 2015, SegWit is aimed to increase network capacity and solve transaction malleability via a soft fork. BIP 141, its proposal, requires a super-majority (95%) of miners to signal for the upgrade over two weeks.
BIP 91: Created by BitmainWarranty engineer James Hilliard, BIP 91 looks to lock-in SegWit2x’s SegWit update before August 1, making the proposal compatible with BIP 148. BIP 91 requires 80% of bitcoin’s miners to signal support for a lock-in and a shorter signaling period than BIP141.
BIP 148: Uses an older mechanism for making changes to bitcoin, called a user-activated soft fork (UASF). It requires about 50% of mining pools to support the change. Without that support, BIP 148 could activate and split the network into two competing blockchains.
Bitcoin ABC: A version of the bitcoin client that erases SegWit and enables a dynamic block size. It was first proposed in reaction to the idea of a UASF, which has some opposition in parts the industry. If bitcoin splits because of UASF BIP 148, the Bitcoin ABC client will launch on another chain.
How to stay up to date and safe
Now the interesting question is, which of these proposals have emerged with the majority of hashing power and has a chainsplit occured because blocks of one blockchain-node software have been rejected by another.
The best overview on the current situation is available on https://www.btcforkmonitor.info/.
This website keeps track of all possible emergent blockchains and informs you if there is a chain-split, in which case the safest bet is to be cautious and not trade or transact your bitcoins until the situation has cleared.
