I’ve been fascinated with financial markets since the stock market crash of 1987. I was 28 at the time, and was a rather successful blue-collar entrepreneur since I was 21.
That crash rocked my world a bit, and began an awakening process that continues til this day. By the time I was 30, I began devouring every bit of information I could get my hands on concerning the history of financial markets, money, and economics.
That said, one of the areas of interest that raised my passion was historical price charts. After all, price charts tell the story of the past with numbers – and numbers (generally) don’t lie, though they can be manipulated.
As such, for the last 25-years I’ve become somewhat of an amateur expert on price charts and the basic analysis thereof.
I must have gotten something right because after employing and acting upon all of the awakening knowledge that I had amassed from my late 20’s, I retired from this worlds debt-based, slave-driven rat-race at the ripe young age of 47. Not too bad for an auto-didactic who dropped out of high school at 16.
No, I’m not off-grid, though there are elements of the concept that I find appealing. For the most part, I’m playing both sides of the fence (the lame-stream, and my stream), and am rather well-hedged against a variety of future outcomes.
If social security is still around in a few years, it will be like I hit the lotto when the mafia-government begins returning all the money they confiscated from me during my working years.
Granted I’m under a self-imposed house arrest of sorts (ha-ha) but I’ve been off the human farming treadmill for more than 10-years now and loving it. So far so good, but I am always humbled by the knowledge that things can and will change overtime – and at times, not to one’s particular advantage.
Based on the decisions we made in the past, how those inevitable changes will affect us can vary from good, bad, to downright ugly, and there’s simply no way to know for sure just exactly which way the winds of time will blow relative to the decisions each of us made in the past, or will make in the present day.
I got most all of my life’s “hedges” in place back in 2004, but the one thing I regret not selecting to place within my arsenal of hedges was some Bitcoin.
I opened a Coin-base account a few years ago, but never bought any Bitcoin – I was kinda tapped out at that point. I’ve recently tried to access the account, but was locked-out because of some new security features. I’ve tried to contact/email them to recover the account, but customer service does not appear to exist in the crypto world, at least not at Coin-base.
Anyway, I decided to see if my trading platform had a bitcoin symbol I could chart. To my surprise, the CME group (the Chicago Mercantile Exchange) recently started a real-time index for Bitcoin. (see link at bottom of post)
I am however rather disappointed that they did not go to the necessary lengths to acquire all of the historical data, but something is better than nothing. They began charting the real time data from April 23, 2017.
So for what it may be worth to anyone out there, here is my take on the daily price action in Bitcoin. First, I’ll list the obvious and then share a bit more insight as to the prospects for future price action.
- The long-term trend is obviously up
- The short-term trend is down
- Resistance is at the recent high of 2975.36
- Support is at the recent low of 1809.26
The rising dark blue trendline is tracking the longer-term uptrend from April of 2017, while the falling light-blue trendline is tracking the shorter-term down trendline from the recent all-time-high. Both are lines of respective support and resistance.
The rising red trendline is tracking a sell-trigger boundary, which measures roughly 866-pts of downside from the point at which price dipped below said boundary.
What does that mean? Basically, it sites a potential downside price target projection of 1283 so long as price continues to trade beneath the rising red sell-trigger, and so long as Bitcoin remains beneath it’s all-time high.
So long as the price action meets these requirements, the aforementioned price target shall remain viable. In contrast, if price action opposes said criteria, the prospects for reaching the target diminish. A new all-time-high would negate this particular sell trigger entirely.
Finally, another skill I’ve acquired over the years is the ability to program and back-test various algorithmic trading strategies into my trading platforms charting structure.
Mind you, there is not nearly enough data here for any level of reliability, but just for kicks, - I ran one of my trading strategies on the data, and as you can see, it moved short Bitcoin on July 10 at a price of 2507.14.
The “Daily Equity” panel in the lower portion of the chart shows the dollar amount of current profit/loss on the current trade. The “Trend” panel at the bottom of the chart shows whether the data reflects a bullish bias (green) or a bearish bias (red), - this trend indicator also issues the buy & sell signals.
Well, that’s about it for now Steemians. Let me know if you have any questions, or if you might like occasional follow-ups.
Oh, and if there is anyone out there that direct me as to the simplest most secure way to acquire Bitcoin in the US, I'd be grateful.
Thanks
Here's a link to the CME:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/cf-bitcoin-reference-rate.html
(sorry for the long-form link, still getting acquainted with the markup/layout system here)