I read several articles suggesting that Bitcoin price are following logarithm trends. Inspired by those articles I decided to look at bitcoin price chart at bitinfocharts.
I saw some interesting patterns and decided to share my observations with the community for their expert comments.
From the chart my observations from past trend are as follows:
- Downtrend magnitude can be 5-10 times
- Uptrend magnitude can be 100-500 times
- Downtrend period tends to double from one cycle to another i.e first time 6 months and second time 12 months
- Upward period tends to increase by 12 months from one cycle to another i.e first time 24 months and second time 36 months
Based on above observations following can be predicted:
- The ongoing downtrend can continue till Dec'19 and drop till 2000.
- Six months later (sometime in June'20) block reward will be halved which will reduce BTC supply. Therefore, traders/investors will start building their positions from Dec'19 onwards to benefit from potential price appreciation due to reduced supply
- So Dec'19 onward -the uptrend is exp
Keep steeming.