This is a technical analysis from an analyst I trust very much when it comes to reading the charts. I don't post TA often but thought it might be helpful for those feeling a bit down with the current price movements.
This figure above represents a trend analysis. Since late February 6th - April 9th you'll see four different patterns drawn representing Bitcoin's price movement (blue > gold > green > red)
A similar trend is playing out drawn above from April 10th - May 16th. We've completed the blue > gold > green patterns and now we're starting the red pattern movement. If you notice the formation of the newer blue > gold > green patterns, they are all sizably smaller the the previous wave. This could imply the red wave movement may also be sizably smaller. We've got multiple fib levels and support to get through before we create a double bottom at $6.6k. We just have to see where the bulls come through for us. It'll be important to weigh the pros and cons of the fundamental catalysts moving our alpha - BTC.
Fundamental positive catalysts:
- Consensus 2018
- Adam + Eve bottom created in April
- OTC buys and short squeeze in April
- Positive sentiment and alt-season wave
Fundamental negative catalysts:
- Mt. Gox dumping massive amounts of BTC
- Hard rejection at $10k
- Losing bullish momentum and surrendering to bears in the $9k and $8k range
The neckline is being breached on the 4h chart as you can see by the yellow arrow pointing to our current downward movement. We still have not found a strong bounce level where bulls are waiting to take the price higher. We broke the 618 fib level support at $8500. We've broken through the daily 50 MA line (shown in previous charts). And now we're printing a bearish 1 candle (td sequential) on the weekly chart. We've essentially wiped off 2-3 weeks of gains in 1 week. This shows me the bears are in full control in the $10k-8k range. The next strong level of support I see is $7600-7800 range. We need this to hold or $6k range is not out of the question.
Stay neutral, avoid being bearish nor bullish. Above are some observations of what is happening on the TA level. There is no such thing as a crystal ball. Avoid being swayed one way or another to capitalize on your losses or gains. Hope you can use this to objectively informed decision of how to make money or at least not lose money.