Hey there Steemians,
Disclaimer:
This is the speculative result of my own personal analysis, which I will be using for myself. Always do your own thorough research before making any decision. I may be 'completely' wrong.
Bitcoin has experienced four major bubbles since its inception back in 2009, including the one we are experiencing now. Between each bubble, is a 7 to 46 month accumulation period (+/- 2 years) of reasonably flat stability. These basins of stability between each bubble, reflect the new, and so far consistently higher, base value of Bitcoin during that time.
A popular accumulation strategy is to slowly dollar cost average during these basins of stability. Which leads to the question; Presuming that we are coming to the end of the fourth Bitcoin bubble now, then what will the new base price be, for the new accumulation period?
Note:
It 'appears', as though this particular bubble is coming to an end. It is still not 100% clear that it is definitely ending yet.
Since crypto currencies are fairly sensitive to collective whole number psychological levels, I'll call the range, $2000 to $2500.
This is my calculated 'opinion', of where the new base price of Bitcoin will settle, until the next bubble some time during the next two years. My model also aligns with other valuation methods, offering a speculative and 'statistically likely' peek of $10000+ for the next bubble. Followed by a new base price at that time, of between $4000 and $5000, if that fifth bubble takes place any time from 2020 onwards.
It may be said that we are participating in the extreme sport of speculative investment. Some of us 'will' get hurt. So just be careful out there, and stay safe.
...And don't listen to me. I have no clue what I'm doing.
