HEREis a link to a great paper that estimates bitcoin’s core demand growth at a relatively consistent 90% per year since it originated, or nearly doubling every 12 months, with no signs of letting up.
That’s a little slower adoption estimate than some others I’ve seen, but regardless its remarkable still.
By the end of this current cycle bitcoin should have about 4% worldwide adoption. That puts it at only five more doublings away from 100% (4—>8, 16, 32, 64, 100). And if its doubling every 13 months or so, we could be only about one year from the “tipping point” and less than six years away from essentially universal adoption.
I can’t emphasize enough the importance of taking network effects and other exponential growth patterns seriously. This is so important that I have several relevant maxims on the subject:
*Network effects are very antifragile. Trust them early (but protect your downside, at least until the tipping point).
*After the tipping point (third doubling from 1 percent), exponential growth patterns in technology and biology don’t just stop of their own accord. They continue until acted upon by some sufficiently capable outside force or until saturation is reached.
*Once any exponential process reaches 1 percent penetration/adoption, you’re only 7 potential doublings away from 100 percent.
*And once it achieves 8 percent (the tipping point), you’re only four doublings away and the odds of saturation are all but certain.