BTC Fork survival kit.
Part #2
Let's review possible scenarios and trading strategies for BTC-USD, BTC-Altcoins before, and after Segwit 2X fork
As we previously mentioned, considering August and October BTC forks/airdrops, it's likely that BTC price will keep climbing towards fork
Will it climb without corrections? Unlikely. Several indicators tell us that several corrections will happen before BTC will dip.
What indicators are we looking for? Fibonacci is a very helpful tool in pair with RSI - Relative Strength Index.
How to use RSI values?
It is primarily used to identify overbought or oversold conditions
RSI values range from 0 to 100.
On the stochastic oscillator, the value of 80 or above indicates that an asset is overbought, while levels of 20 or lower indicate that an asset is oversold.
Fibonacci net can be used to identify similar pattern. I would recommend to use both: RSI, Fibonacci and Elliot waves pattern to predict further movement.
What's the best strategy? Currently, I would recommend to stay away from Alts. Why? There are two reasons:
- Majority of alts are traded through Bitcoin (BTC-Altcoin pair), therefore with the growth of BTC, alt coin value gets weaker. USD - Altcoin might stay the same, but BTC-Altcoin value will go down
- People will sell altcoins to buy BTC. That will help them to get Altcoins at much cheaper price, considering that their BTC will grow
What's our best strategy?
- Get BTC during the dip. What dips are we looking for? Going down from 6300 to 5800 is quite possible.
Usually dips happen when market is overbought + news.
Example: Price went up too fast, and gained over 80 RSI within short period of time. At that point, people hesitate to purchase coin that high and they "wait". As soon as some bad news hit the market, they use it as excuse to sell.
Keep BTC to buy Altcoins later. BTC is likely to keep climbing till fork, and shortly after it. We have seen that in August and October
I think that closer to fork, BTC will cross 7,000 USD priceline, and possibly move towards 8,000 USD. Altcoins will keep bleeding for some time.
Bitcoin will continue to increase total market share. It's already about 60%, pushing alt coins down. Strategy "BUY and HOLD" is not a good strategy in this case
After fork, BTC market share will start decreasing, money will flow back into alt coins.
Don't sell all your alt coins for BTC. Sell only partially during BTC dips. Why? Because several alt coins will be "mooning" during fork period. How do I know?
Some coins like OMG, for example, has high potential and great value. If the price will go down to 5 dollars, it increases possibility of a larger whale filling huge buy order, which will pump the price to 7-9 USD.
Summary: We can't say what will happen in the future, therefore this is not call to action or financial advise. However, we can have certain expectations based on previous forks.
Also, keep an eye on Litecoin since it has good habit to follow BTC with some delay.