On the 15th of May the Bcash network will be upgraded through a hardfork. Old Bitcoin op-codes will be re-introduced in Bcash and the block size will be increased from 8 to 32 MB. The price went up a lot in the previous weeks and the upcoming hardfork is appointed to be the main reason. However, I think manipulation was at least partly responsible for the gains and the negative aspects of the hardfork could outweight the positive aspects.
The Bcash hardfork
A hardfork is risky, everyone involved have to update the software or they will be rejected by the network after the fork. When a part of the community decides that the legacy chain is more valuable and refuse to join the hardfork a split will happen. Also a bug could crash the entire network as was the case with Segwit 2x.
If Segwit 2x had happened with full consensus the Bitcoin network would have stopped working for the first time in it’s history! Seen the flawed EDA that was included in Bcash when it forked off from Bitcoin and caused a lot of trouble, I have not enough confident in the Bcash devs to consider them competent. Do you think the code is carefully written and intensively reviewed?
The fork will insert old Bitcoin op-codes in Bcash
The op-codes were removed from Bitcoin in the early years because very serious bugs were found. One bug could cause all Bitcoin nodes to crash and the other one could enable everyone to spend everyones bitcoins.
Both of them are very serious bugs that immediately destroy the fundamental features, and there is a fair chance that there are more bugs that are not found yet because it was so serious that they were removed immediately without further investigation. An unknown bug could crash the entire Bcash network after the hardfork.
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Script
Even Gavin Andresen, the by Satoshi appointed lead developer that time didn't see the removed op-codes to be re-introduced anytime soon back then. He wanted to see a peer reviewed academic style paper that ensures that it is safe to do so. I really doubt if the Bcash devs did do this, but I don't expect so.
I am so happy that I don't have any funds in Bcash while this experiment plays out.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=37157.0
The block size will be increased
The block size will be increased from 8 to 32 MB. This is interesting, because they use not even 50 KB per block over the last 30 days and 68 KB on a day as today with a lot of volume caused by price volatility. 50 KB per block is only 0.626%, so Bcash blocks are not even 1% full yet. I suspect that they will use a tsunami of extremely cheap and low quality transactions to make the network look popular and pump the price, it is really the only use case I can think of.
https://www.fork.lol/ Left is BTC and right is BCH
Why the hell increase blocks that are not even 1% full?!?!
The ease of the hardfork points to centralization
As you see this hardfork will bring huge risk to the Bcash network and it is very discussable whether it is really needed. In a situation like this you would expect heated discussions as took place in the Bitcoin scaling debate, but there is no discussion at all! Bcash folks are following and trusting their leaders blindly!
In my opinion this is a HUGE sign that the decentralization is broken. It became so easy to plan and execute a hardfork that there will probably follow multiple additional forks every year and the Bcash sheeps will follow. I saw a tweet from Jihan Wu (biggest miner) that they ‘could’ decrease the block time from ten to 2.5 minutes to compete with Litecoin.
This will quadruple the block rewards miners can earn and a new Federal Reserve is born, because holders will be robbed from their value by the creators of the money. Beside that ‘leaders’ of Bcash can also be compromised to change fundamental features at the will of governments or bankers.
Only talking about this with a coin that does a hardfork so easily would scare me a lot…..
Conclusion:
The upcoming Bcash hardfork is very risky and doesn't bring much extra value. Beside that the ease to execute a fork and absence of discussion is a sign that Bcash is very centralized. I think the rise in price is very overdone and at least partly driven by manipulation.
Especially when you consider that Bcash only have 10% of the security level of BTC, less than 10% transactions (of witch many low value and less efficient because no Segwit and batching), no network effect and no certain future while the current price is 0.166 BTC (16,6%). Bcash now is very risky to own and heavily overvalued. I am happy that I am finished dumping the entire stack I got out of thin air on the 1st of August.
Fair value of Bcash is far below 0.1 BTC in my opinion.
Disclaimer
This is no financial advice, just my view on the market.
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