Apologies to everyone that took me at my word and bought Bitcoin at the doubling line.
The stock market is fucked. This is far from over. Now that the bottom has fallen out from Bitcoin there is absolutely no telling where it will go. However, considering that breakers are in place to stop the stock market from cratering in a single day, these drops could happen over and over again for quite a while.
I've vastly underestimated how much institutional money was already invested into Bitcoin. It might take quite a bit longer to flush out all the "weak hands" and bottom out.
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $800 | $1600 | $3200 | $6400 | $12800 | $25600 | $51200 |
Sadly, this metric is no longer my golden goose! Bitcoin has fallen beneath the doubling line. I do believe it will still be a good metric once we recover, but going all in blindly at the doubling line is no longer a viable strategy.
I would not recommend trying to catch the falling knife here. It will be much safer to wait for the market to level off and lose some volatility. I think there is a good chance once we bottom out that bulls will be scared to pump the price because of how fucked we're getting. I plan to reenter the market when the price levels off and slowly goes back up. Of course, since it's me staying that, don't be surprised if it spikes up out of control after all this flash crashing is over.
Once again, I am way overextended and feeling the burn. I probably only should have been half way into the market and 50% USD backup, but instead I was over 100% using loans from the MakerDAO. OUCH! Yep... my CDP should be liquidated any second now. I've tried to fix this problem but I can't push a single god damn transaction on the Ethereum network no matter how high I pump the transaction fee. Fun stuff.
Even more annoying, many services that used to claim to be DEXes now require KYC. Yeah, these guys should just give up and shut down. Any 'DEX' that requires KYC is going to fail. I'll just use a centralized exchange, thanks. I tried using https://uniswap.exchange/swap for the first time today... I really like the simple UX. Reminds me of Google. Sadly, I can't seem to make a single transaction on the network. So annoying.
Silver Lining.
The more adversity I face, the more it seems to light the fire inside me. This perfect storm of bullshit reminds me of an Andreas Antonopoulos video I watched the other day. In the video the ultimate conclusion was the best investment is education. Knowledge can not be taken away from you like money can. I'm highly motivated to continue learning.
When I look at my paltry crypto holdings I realize that if I was actually a real blockchain developer I could make that much money in under a few months. And I'm not talking about programming some killer app, I'm talking about the time servant wages that are paid to dev employees. Very few people in the world know how to do this stuff. I just need to keep chugging along.
The best advice I can give is to not be blinded by taking a loss. Sometimes the correct move is to take a loss because you're overextended and the market can always tumble further. Don't let the mental barrier of taking a loss cause you to make the wrong decision. I've fallen victim to this many times. The ultimate goal here should be to lower volatility. Volatility is our worst enemy in this space. The value is there, but the volatility can put us on tilt very easily.
I cashed out my Ethereum on Coinbase in order to prevent my MakerDAO loan from getting liquidated over 2.5 hours ago... they still haven't processed the transaction. It's super awesome how the network doesn't work when you need it the most.
Lesson learned.
