The New vs. The Old
The power of blockchain is not to reinvent the products that currently dominate the market. Whenever a company claims it will be “The Next [Whatever]”, it’s a sign of ignorance.
Blockchain is fundamentally a NEW technology. It is important to understand this, because humans have historically been terrible at predicting the trajectory of new ideas. We always want to map them to the past. We look at what already existed and figure we can do it a little better.
It would be a shame for Steemit to replace Facebook… because that is an incremental improvement. It’s not a realization of the real potential of blockchain. Facebook is the ultimate centralized network… and a decentralized network makes a huge mistake by copying it.
That’s where DTube fails. For one thing, IFPS might be a hugely overvalued, and underperforming, project… LBRY is doing the same thing with less than 1% as much money. When you raise $500,000,000 and can’t reliably host a few thousand hours of video… you are blowing it.
What the Telephone Tells Us About Blockchain
When the telephone was invented, its creators imagined it would enhance the activity of the telegram. Telegram operators could use it to communicate with each other. There was no plan to put telephones in peoples’ homes.
Steemit is similar to reddit, but it won’t replace it. Ditto for Facebook, Twitter, and so on. Steemit is a new kind of network.
Reddit and Facebook are the epitome of centralized networks. They are fueled by memes and cheap entertainment. Steemit has no place for any of the content that you see on the front page of Reddit - if a user earned a spot on the top of the trending page for a meme, they would be largely lambasted.
It’s a different system with different opportunities.
Centralized networks are not evil. They are one useful paradigm. Rather than focus on destroying the structures that exist now, we should be adding to them. When we add something new to the ecosystem, we can create exponential progress rather than incremental progress.
Determinate vs. Indeterminate Optimism
Indeterminate Optimism: The idea that things will get better, but we don’t know how.
This is an unsustainable mindset. As Peter Thiel points out in the above video, it is how we look at death - “Well, I probably won’t die this year. That’s good enough.” - but it does not lead to radical improvement, it only leads to survival.
When you believe that the future will be good and don’t know why, it is natural to copy the current success stories. After all, it worked for them, and why not for you?
Determinate Optimism is when you have a clear vision of why the future shall be better. With blockchain, we have the power to create decentralized networks that value legitimate contribution and collaboration.
Uncensored networks are inherently more collaborative, more creative, than censored ones. There are problems around the edges - hate speech, ignorance, etc - but the vast majority of the creation is positive and pragmatic.
When we attempt to recreate centralized networks… we toss away the potential of blockchain. Instead, let’s focus on a clear vision of a radically better future: A more voluntary, more collaborative, more creative and equal future.
Let the current centralized systems stand. If they are not creating real value, they will fall when their time comes.
Will you join me to create a new kind of world?
