We’ve learnt through hard experience in our house not to ignore the dangers of a flu pandemic. My husband contracted Swine Flu just after Christmas in 2009. He was very ill, but hospitals were overwhelmed and he was advised to stay at home. Due to work pressures he returned to work and struggled for the next two years until he was finally diagnosed with ME. This is a neurological illness in which, simply put, all the body’s energy fuses burn out. This was triggered by the Swine flu overloading his immunological response. He ended up having to take ill health retirement. Photo

So this is why when we first heard (around 20th Jan) about the new virus in Wuhan – currently called Covid-19 – we were alert to its dangers and our belief that this had all the earmarks of a global pandemic have so far been borne out.

At Sunday lunch with the in-laws on the 26th January my sister-in-law asked what we thought of the Coronavirus. We both expressed concern. At this point the World Health Organisation (WHO) had still not declared it a World Health Emergency despite being informed by Chinese officials at the end of December. They in turn had kept quiet from mid-December. My sister-in-law suffers from severe anxiety and I admit I did find myself trying to reassure her that we didn’t know how it was going to develop and that it might peter out like SARS. I did advise her to start preparing though.

Hope for the Best – Prepare for the Worst

Given our previous experience with the Swine flu we have since January been buying in Ibuprofen, paracetamol, throat lozenges, hand gel, surface wipes/cleaners, face masks, disposable gloves, tissues and toilet roll. That sort of thing. Tinned foods too, a bit each week. Facemasks were the hardest to get hold of. This is two-fold. Firstly, in the event of having to treat ourselves at home these products can go a long way. Secondly, in the event of self-quarantine/lock-down these products can go a long way.

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Temperature being taken

It’s true I didn’t want to see my sister-in-law worrying needlessly for at the time (26 Jan) there were still a lot of unknowns. (There still are). However, to tell people they are panicking and being hysterical, as the mainstream media is doing at present, is to avoid addressing people’s fears in an honest and straightforward way. Although, since I started writing this article more serious news outlets have started printing more informative articles. They've also changed the name of the virus!

I have seen several alternative media outlets claim the mainstream is whipping up panic but that has not been my experience. On the contrary they seem to be downplaying the seriousness of this virus. (Again this is changing all the time). There are several reasons why this virus is shaping up to be a major global pandemic of the variety we see once in a century.

The human race has not encountered this virus before so there is no generalised, or herd, immunity. The virus can move silently, new evidence suggests as much as 24 days of an infectious period before showing symptoms. It is highly contagious, one study has found one person can infect 6 other people. It looks to have a high complication rate - which may not mean death - but may mean the overstretching of hospitals and medical staff. Another new study has shown that smokers look to be at a higher risk of developing complications from this illness. Anecdotal evidence is coming to us that secondary infections could be a possibility leading to heart failure. Admittedly studies are not peer reviewed at this pressing moment, and figures are difficult to come by. However, what we do have should cause us all a level of concern, which is not the same as panic!

Comparisons in the MSM being made to SARS, seasonal flu, and Swine flu, are flawed in my opinion. Firstly, SARS – the figures presented in the MSM are for a virus that is all said and done. The comparison is flawed because Covid-19 is an ongoing virus. Not only do we not have the final figures, we cannot even have full confidence in the figures we do have.

Secondly, seasonal flu – the evidence we have so far strongly suggests that the Covid-19 virus is much more contagious, has a much higher rate of developing serious complications and so far indicates a higher case fatality rate.

Again, with swine flu we have a more comprehensive data set to work with. Covid-19, despite some claims, has not peaked yet. In fact all the indicators are is that this may have some way to go yet. So, therefore with a lack of comprehensive data, as you would expect in a rapidly developing pandemic, comparisons to established and older viruses are flawed and unhelpful.

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Royal Mail UK

One reason for this downplaying is to prevent panic, but another, more nefarious reason, is to continue business as usual. Indeed, around the same time my family were meeting for lunch thousands of families in Wuhan were traveling to meet up and celebrate Lunar New Year. Including a feast of 40,000 (on the 18th January). The subsequent canceling of this important holiday will have had an impact on the Chinese economy. The later lock down of numerous cities (approaching 30) has had, and will continue to have, major economic consequences. It goes without saying that as the workshop of the world the economic fallout from this could be massive. Especially given the already weakened state of the world economy. If the Chinese economy catches the flu will the weaker countries of the world catch pneumonia?

Empty shopping centre in Beijing

On the 26 Jan flights were still leaving Wuhan. On the 29 Jan WHO officials said the spread of the virus outside of China was of “grave concern”. By the end of the month they were calling it a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. However, the UN health body still did not recommend limiting trade and travel. Up until the 26 Jan there was still first hand accounts available on social media showing deserted streets and overcrowded hospitals. Most likely due to state repression these sources of information have gone quiet. There has however, been satellite imagery, and anecdotal evidence, to suggest that Wuhan is secretly cremating a quantity of bodies.

Indeed the entire handling of the virus, so praised by Western media outlets, is inspiring very different feelings within the country. Residents who published information online have been issued with police letters warning them to “calm down and reflect on your actions...if you insist on your views, refuse to repent and continue the illegal activity, you will be punished by the law”. Ominously the doctor who first blew the whistle about the virus in Wuhan is now dead. Much anger is building directed towards the regime and their handling of the virus.

Citizen journalist Chen Qiushi taken away by the state

At this moment in time the transmission rates from China to the rest of the world has been low. This most definitely begs a question. Initial thought is that the time lag between becoming infected and showing symptoms is longer than first thought. So virus spread is only a matter of time. I spoke to my elderly father about this on 6 Feb as he has weak lungs (COPD) plus he lives in London. Obviously densely populated areas will be more prone to the risk of infection spreading quickly. Unfortunately, my dad hasn’t taken me seriously, because believe in part the press are still downplaying the seriousness of this virus. At this point though many health officials are saying the cat is already out of the bag.

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