Frigid Day Today Classic Setup Classic Questions Early Week
Good morning everyone. We have a lot going on over the next few days as we deal with some very cold to frigid air. We're also fine-tuning a complicated system that'll impact our weather late Sunday night into possibly Tuesday.
SATELLITE
For today, we have a frigid and windy day that'll wind up being slightly colder than expected. Low to mid 20's were originally forecasted, but we will struggle to get to 20 today. With that, wind chills will be in the negative range as winds gust in the 30-40mph realm today.
Breezy & gusty conditions persist tonight, and lows will be in the low teens in the NYC Metro Area. Single digits will be an easy accomplishment for areas N&W of NYC and the Pine Barrens of Long Island.
Very cold weather locks in, and Saturday isn't looking much better expect for lighter winds. Expect 20's for highs and teens overnight again.
We begin watching our system on Sunday, but it looks like we remain dry throughout the entire day into the evening. Look for AM sun, PM increasing clouds, with highs near 30.
Most people don't want to hear this, but I think Sunday AM will give us the clearest picture possible in terms of what to expect within an acceptably small margin of error. We have a classic setup brewing, but there are a few parts slightly "off" in terms of creating an accurate forecast at this point.
First and foremost, we know we have a system. There is 0 doubt at this point that our system will not come to fruition or not form. Low pressure will be heading into the Ohio Valley, slamming into that very cold air locked into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. That'll force a transfer of energy to the coast, giving us a classic winter setup. That also creates the classic questions - where and what track?
The big issue for me, is and has been the overall projected strength of our system. In terms of Nor'easter strength is concerned, on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the strongest), this is maybe a 1 or 2. This will not be an overtly impressive low pressure system in terms of overall power. That doesn't mean it can't put down significant snows, but it does create complications in other ways.
Without a powerful system, we have rain/snow line issues (especially for the NJ coast and South Shore/Forks of Long Island. To keep things all snow in these specific areas, we'll have to have development further south and east. If so, then we'll have northern fringe issues areas north of NYC, with possibly no or little snow in the Poconos. There are also signs that the system may have issues exiting and may wobble back towards the coast. If that winds up happening, we could see it wrap slightly warmer air into the mid layers, and give a larger area some mixing or change to rain.
That is why it's important to be patient and see what the atmosphere looks like over the next couple of days. At this very moment, this is not a clean-cut system and there's a lot of fine tuning to be done. For those looking for snow totals right now, any numbers you see are just guesses. We will hold off from the guessing game and leave it at this -
- We know we have a system that'll affect us late Sunday into possible Tuesday
- There are issues with strength, rain/snow lines, and northern fringe
- The best chance to see plowable snow right now is NW NJ & Eastern PA
- The NYC area has 50/50 chance right now of seeing plowable snow
- There are big questions for the south shore/forks of Long Island & NJ Coast
- This is not a powerful/destructive system, but is capable of decent snow totals due to slow movement.
Posted from my blog with SteemPress : https://www.nycweathernow.com/frigid-day-today-classic-setup-classic-questions-early-week/