HURRICANE FLORENCE NARROWS SOUTHEAST COAST TARGET
Good morning everyone. We wake up this morning to the sad reality that Hurricane Florence is running out of options/exit routes, and will most likely make landfall somewhere between central the South Carolina coast and the North Carolina coast. While New York City can breathe a sigh of relief for now, we will still see some visual effects of her power. Meanwhile, other areas such as the Virginia and Maryland coast, are not out of the woods as of now.
First off for the New York City area today, we have our first washout in quite some time. Look for rain all day, windy and raw, highs in the upper 60's at best. I thought we could achieve a few 70's today, but with no real break in the rain, there will be no break in the temps. Overnight, we actually rise in temps as that warmer air arrives late, also bringing with it heavier showers and a few rumbles of thunder.
Tomorrow and Wednesday we're in the tropical soup. Cloud cover will inhibit us going past the mid 80's, but expect a couple of tropical days nonetheless. Expect a chance of afternoon showers and storms Tuesday, then a more general and scattered variety of showers and storms Wednesday. On Thursday, our wind starts to kick up a bit out of the southeast with the approach of Florence, and we should have a high/thin veil of clouds in the area with low 80's.
Don't be surprised to see high surf advisories/warnings pop up along the immediate coast here, as well as coastal flood advisories with an enhanced tide from both the new moon and Florence. Areas along the immediate shore, especially at docks and bulkheads, could see some minor flooding late in the week. Continue scrolling for a full Hurricane Florence update....
WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE
As for Hurricane Florence, she's looking very healthy now and strengthening rapidly. Winds as of the latest advisory were sustained at 105mph and you should expect her to intensify much further. Models continue to converge on a South Carolina/North Carolina strike, but still disagree on where she goes upon landfall.
At this juncture, we know somewhere between SC and NC we will have a major hurricane making landfall. Where exactly remains the question; however, we have a more narrow path and can discuss who's out of immediate danger and who's not. As I said further up, NYC can breathe a sigh of relief unless there are dramatic and sudden changes, which is unlikely at this point.
The being said, I continue to have a rather large area of concern set up from areas of the Mid-Atlantic, down to the Georgia Coast. Obviously wherever the eye-wall makes landfall, it'll be devastating, but we cannot lose focus on north/northeast of the center, where the largest surge and heaviest bands of precip usually reside. This is why I remain concerned for the Virginia and Maryland coast if Florence makes landfall higher up on the NC coast. Florence is bringing a lot of water with her and we could see storm surge issues in the Chesapeake Bay area. A more southerly route and Myrtle Beach is in big trouble. Then everyone north and northeast of that area would be under the gun to see the worst wrath of Florence.
We also have some questions about the final outcome of Florence after landfall. The EURO continues to take it far inland and into the mountain ranges. This will prove devastating for areas inland in terms of major flooding and mudslides. Meanwhile, the GFS has it sitting and weakening over eastern NC. Not only would this have major coastal ramifications beyond anything we've seen, but it would also create major flooding issues along the I95 corridor due to copious amounts of rain.
So yes, we have a few questions answered. We have narrowed her landfall area a smidge and know that an escape is highly unlikely. Now we wait to narrow down who will see what and where does she go after landfall.
Stay tuned.
*Please consult your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov for the latest information on any tropical storms or hurricanes that could be a threat to your area. Consult your local government officials regarding action you may need to take to secure life and property. Maps shown on here SHOULD NOT be used for decision making.
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