NYC HOT BEACH DAY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ALONG GULF
While NYC basks in the heat during the last weekend of the "summer season", residents of the Gulf Coast are beginning to watch closely for their first tropical system this year.
We have a cloudy start this morning, but don't let that fool you. Clearing will commence as the morning goes on and we should catapult into the low 90's for the New York City area, upper 80's at the immediate shore. Again, tomorrow we'll threaten the record of 93 as low to mid 90's are expected. Sunny skies and 90's continue through Thursday, then a back door front and approaching system start to cool things off for Friday into the first part of next weekend. There are a lot of factors that go into the late week/weekend forecast and that all hangs on what will be Tropical Storm Gordon, does.
EASTERN SATELLITE
Tropical Storm warnings are posted for areas of Louisiana and into the extreme western Panhandle of Florida. This is due to a tropical wave heading through south Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf is notorious for rapid development and we expect nothing less. However, time and speed is on our side in terms of any historic, worst-case scenarios unfolding.
Look for our low pressure to become Tropical Storm Gordon, then row right into a small cone between New Orleans, LA and Mobile, AL. Anywhere to the north and east of the center will experience the full menu of Gordon, including a minor to moderate storm surge. As I said though, time and speed are on our side. With Gordon on the move and no stalling expected, it won't have time to build up that dome of water for a devastating, wide-spread storm surge, combined with epic wind and wave action. Still though, areas prone to this type of approach (Mobile, Biloxi, Bay of St Louis areas, Gulfport) need to take the warnings seriously and take action over the next 24-48 hours to protect life and property.
In general, Gordan's biggest threat will be torrential flooding rains and tornadic activity; wind damage to light structures will be second to these threats. We'll be tracking the progress of this situation very closely, as well as any late surprises. In the Gulf we've seen in the past, Tropical Storms achieve hurricane status just miles off shore and a few hours from landfall. In the end though, it'll just be a formality and proper precautions should be taken regardless of Gordon's title.
Always listen to your local government and local weather officials when dealing with landfalling tropical systems; be guided by them as they have first-hand knowledge of how their towns absorb these types of weather events.
As far as Tropical Storm Florence is concerned, we continue to watch what she does and if she will catch the bus to obscurity over the next few days. We have a LONG way to go and several opportunities she will confront in terms of being steered north and out. Don't let the models drive you nuts right now, she has a long trip ahead. The only ones who should be watching and biting their nails right now are the shipping industry and Bermuda. If Florence misses the first bus, the second bus could possibly steer her towards the general Bermuda vicinity. If she misses bus number 2, then it'll be time for us to watch and hope she gets on #3 to the north Atlantic.
I warned about a quiet August tropic-wise for weeks now. A quiet August does not make for a quiet September through November. It only takes 1 system to ruin someones day, so we will be watching all of the features and signs coming alive late season for any possible situations. As of this very moment, the East Coast is safe in the short/medium range forecast, and of course we are watching the Gulf very closely for what till be Gordon.
Enjoy the heat and enjoy your holiday!
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