RECORD TEMPS POSSIBLE NYC GORDON MAKES LANDFALL TONIGHT
Good morning everyone, two features remain in the news this morning. One will be the near-record highs today for New York City, and the other is Tropical Storm Gordon making landfall overnight tonight along the extreme eastern Louisiana coastline to the western Florida panhandle.
Look for sunny skies, searing heat and humidity, and light NW winds. This will help propel the NYC area into the low to mid 90's. The record for today is 93 set in 1961, so it's gonna be a close one. Tomorrow we "cool off" to near 90, mid 80's near the beaches; then we go for the 90's again on Thursday with the chance of an afternoon thunderstorm.
EASTERN SATELLITE
The cool down begins on Friday as scheduled and we'll be watching the remnants of Gordon to see how it'll impact our local weather. As of now, Friday we'll have variable clouds, a slight chance of showers, muggy, and highs in the upper 70's to low 80's. On Saturday, the drier air fights it's way in. That'll clear us out a bit with a mix of sun and clouds, cool and dry, highs in the mid 70's. Mid 70's continue on Sunday, but clouds return with a Gordon-energized front and the slight chance of showers as most of the energy goes well north and west of us.
In the long range, I continue to stick to my original instincts that we're not done with the heat yet. Unless what-will-be major Hurricane Florence jacks up the jet stream in the long run, I wouldn't rule out seeing more attempts at 90/near 90 degree temps into mid and even late September. The pattern is very stubborn at this point, which also continues to raise my concern about tropical systems when they get near the east coast. As far as the tropics, obviously our main, immediate concern is Gordon.
While not entirely impressive looking, Gordon is on the move and has some punch with him. It will also most likely achieve Hurricane status right before landfall. Whether it's a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane, the dangers remain the same. The first and immediate concern will be the coastal impacts.
Storm surge warnings are posted in surge-prone areas, including New Orleans. At this very moment, surge looks minimal to moderate for the area, with 1-3ft inundation in low lying areas. That being said, a 1-3ft surge could do property damage as well as be life threatening if you do not prepare correctly or try and venture out.
As you go east, areas such as Mobile bay and Pensacola Bay will have some of the largest surge out of this. With 3-5ft surge, damage could be more moderate and obviously more life threatening. The time is now to prepare and take proper action to protect property and life.
Time and speed is our friend on this one as Gordon won't have time to strengthen into anything crazy or bring as much water as it could've if it had a slower forward speed, but he should still be taken seriously. Flooding rains and tornadic activity will be the biggest threat after the initial minor to moderate surge. It is a compact system with most of the activity east of center, so the strongest of winds, the heaviest of rain, and tornadic activity will from the Bay of St Louis in east; but as Gordon makes landfall, the precip field will expand.
As for Florence, she is nearing hurricane strength as well and will most likely become a major hurricane. There will be a few attempts to steer her north and out to sea, but each attempt also has an escape route. We'll have to watch her closely, but she is far away and Gordon is right now; so we will pivot in a couple of days as Gordon fizzles.
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