Winter Storm Watches Posted Preliminary Snow Potential Discussed
Good morning everyone. Cold air continues to grip the area while we await our coastal system that'll impact the area early Monday morning through Early Tuesday. We still have a lot to sort out, but we will go over a few numbers as far as output potential.
SATELLITE
For today, we'll have a another breezy one with temps barely hitting 30. The sun won't do much, and wind chills will remain frigid.
Clouds begin to increase tomorrow after a sunny morning, and winds will subside temporarily. We'll still have an issue breaking 30, with highs in the upper 20's to low 30's at best.
At this point, I think we hold off on the snow until just before sunrise on Monday. Snow will be light and scattered in nature to start, but anything that does fall will stick easily. Sticking will not be an issue with one, as anything that does fall, will provide a nice base if or when the snow becomes heavier and more moisture-laden; with temps creeping at or past the freezing point.
This is where things get tricky. We remain having issues with the northern fringe of this system, with the features being compressed and pushed south. There will be a band of heavy snow that sets up, but it's going to be very narrow in nature. We also have a rain/snow line to be concerned with, and the highest chances of that impacting a forecast area remains to be across the South Shore/Forks of Long Island, possibly the immediate shore of Queens and Brooklyn, and the NJ coast.
As of this moment, I'm going to say the NYC area and parts of Long Island have the potential for a 6-12" snowfall; which is subject to change. That's about the maximum output that this system is capable of. The reason why this is subject to change is because the tolerance is so tight and the band of snow so narrow, any shift 10-15 miles can make a big difference. A shift north, and the rain/snow line shifts north, knocking down totals. A shift south, and we might find ourselves on the northern fringe of the precip with light accumulations.
Preliminary totals look like this: (again, subject to change)
- 6-12" for NYC, Central Suffolk, Central Nassau, and the north shores
- 4-8" for the south shores of Long Island
- 3-6" for the North Fork
- 2-4" for the South Fork
Posted from my blog with SteemPress : https://www.nycweathernow.com/winter-storm-watches-posted-preliminary-snow-potential-discussed/