BTC Update!
Loss of daily higher lows today confirms to me that weekly is now in consolidation.
Unfortunately for those playing bullish, the bounce last night from a higher low of $7850 up to $8200 was quickly lost today and we saw the bears pile on.
So just as we did with the 4 hour when those first lost higher lows, we zoomed out to daily to see if its higher lows would hold. Once the daily lost its higher low, we zoom out to weekly chart and see if it can now hold a higher low.
Weekly - plenty of space for a safe higher low to form. Our recent low was the low of 2018 at $5777. That is still over 20% below current price in low $7500's. Personally, eye balling the chart and just looking at it from a safe higher low that would be ideal for the bulls, $6800-7000 sticks out to me. We will see the cross of 30 and 50 week MAs I have had on my charts since February or so. This is a bearish sign but further price is away from that area (as in yes the lower we are, the less of an impact this would have in terms of traders wanting to take a short or bearish position).
Daily - as stated, loss of higher lows at $7850 was a key exit point for many in positions. We have now formed a lower high and lower low on daily. We will eventually see a bounce here as nothing goes straight up or down but I do believe it will be another lower high and likely then another lower low on daily.
4 Hour - we lost our higher lows several days ago and are now pretty oversold and looking to cool off RSI's. We also had our bearish EMA cross over yesterday as well.
Personally - as stated last night, I had scaled into positions again in $7800s and had then taken profits on partial position in $8100s last night just to lock in some profits. My plan was to then set the stop at $7850 and I ended up not doing so. In hind sight, obviously a mistake. I was active and watching charts and let emotions get the best of me. A stop loss at $7850 would have left me in small profits from yesterday and instead now, I am sitting down about 3.5% on my trade from yesterday. Nothing significant but did learn a valuable lesson. Stick to the plan. I will hold remainder of my position here and see if we do get some relief bounce this week to cool off RSI's and plan to scale out remainder just to get back to cash with minimal damage from the trade and await a more ideal set up.
The ETF is still lingering and something for hopeful bulls to cling to. It would be something if hype/FOMO can kick in again here this week that could quickly turn charts back around. I feel that is just the same as everyone who bitches and moans about prices crashing because of some article or some negative news item in media. This would just be the opposite and likely media picking up ETF hype news for their personal ratings which in turn could then pump BTC price. Certainly worth riding the wave if it occurs but just be sure to get off the ride and don't come crashing down with it if ETF is denied.
Just My 2 Sats!
