This analysis is a synthesis of various patterns that have been going on since 2018. The pattern is not necessarily maintained, so please refer to the analysis article only, and invest carefully. If you liked the analysis article 'Follow' and 'Like' Thank you.
- 50days Pattern + Futures Expiration Date(CME, CBOE)
50days Pattern : From the peak(based on one day) to the big raise(based on one hour) to signal the Bullish, lasting 50days of decline.
The 50days Pattern has been maintained from December 17, 2017 peak, to now November 26, 2018, five times over. If the pattern is maintained, there is a greater likelihood that the decline will end in the vicinity of December 4, 2018, and the appearance of the big raise(based on one hour) to switch to a Bull market.
Futures Expiration(CME, CBOE) Pattern : There is a high likelihood that the trend will change around the expiration date of each CME and CBOE.
Currently, It is close to the $ 3500 major support line. A personal thought, It is judged that the possibility of the latter is high whether 3.5K is broken by Short position or it is supported by Long position. As a result, there is a strong possibility that the trend will shift near the upcoming November CME expiration date (November 30, 2018).
Conclusion : Between November 30 (Futures pattern) and December 4 (50 days pattern), it is likely to be turned into a Bull market.
Estimate a current position with a Coin Market Cap chart
Compared to 2014, we see a three-year upswing after the first year of a four-year cycle. In 2014, the rate of decline(-81%) was 406 days. Currently, it has fallen for 327 days (-86%) since its peak in 2017, and has experienced a similar period and decline with 2014. The point at which the ongoing decline will be over is likely to be a new low since 2018Estimate a current position with a Bitcoin chart
Looking at the Bars Pattern from 2014 to 2017 over the 2018 chart, they looks pretty similar. Decrease for 406 days in 2014 (-86%), decrease in 343 days in 2018 (-82%).