Today I am feeling much better. Some battles won! The feeling is fleeting because by tomorrow I could absolutely fall in rank again. As the monthly results pile in, each becomes more and more of a buffer to volatility in my rank score. Luckily I am finding some stability above the 60% threshold that I need to beat the Rising Star Challenge.
Cindicator is a prediction platform that rewards effective forecasters with cash. This series is my story about becoming a super-forecaster through a challenge I entered called the Rising Star Challenge.
At Cindicator they don't just torture you with questions. They take the results of all users and run them through machine learning to create Crypto Indicators. They do the same with traditional stocks (I don't play the traditional side of the game, I keep my focus on the cryptocurrency side.) I only have beginner level contact with the Cindicator_bot that feeds out those indicators. What I noticed lately is that I am against the majority fairly often. I am not sure if that is just a sign that the bears are still winning the machine learning. Or if I am just wrong, I never get an indicator before I have answered the question so I can only find out in the results. But I do fall on the bull side of cryptocurrency so I always keep that in the back of my mind as I forecast. It is just an observation for now, but maybe in the future, I will find some kind of reassurance in either my answers matching the indicators that follow or maybe I will find reassurance in them Not matching the indicator that follows. I am working on getting the 25,000 CND to move up to Explorer level access to the indicators and maybe that will shed some light on the situation.
Today I have managed to recover a lot and reach 66% accuracy for the month. Here are the daily infographics:
The fuzzy screencap of my statistics from Cindicator as proof:
A lot of forecasting in cryptocurrency for me is finding the emotion that is either in a chart or out there in cryptoland.
I always look at the charts, Cindicator provides a link to some pretty nice charts and information in the "Useful Links" next to each question, or below the question, on the phone app.
My Dad also mentioned to me how coincheckup.com has been adding some useful tools, and I have been looking at their information as well. It will take every interesting analytical tool to figure these questions out, maybe I am just figuring my own opinion out, but it always takes some trigger to snap me into an opinion. Through time I just hope I can improve upon that. My suggestion is that you do the same and find a way to snap yourself into an opinion and run with it; build confidence to just answer and be wrong. Factor in how wrong you are and just leave those bad answers to use in a month or two when you are lost in the same question again. Every answer you submit can be helpful no matter the result.
I had to find a way back to confidence, that is never easy. There's nobody out there who is going to be accountable for my decisions but me. With that confidence, I will carry on and continue answering because I have to complete this challenge and also to continue rising in rank. After this Rising Star competition is over my intention is to keep going and climb as high as I can. Or as low. I am having fun and I appreciate you taking the time out to share in that experience.
If you haven't checked out Cindicator, then please do. It is available on google and apple and on the web at app.Cindicator.com. It is free and pays out a monthly motivational reward to successful forecasters in the form of a percentage of the rewards pool. It isn't much but it is fun to get anything.
Thanks again for sharing in my experience. I chose Steemit because it is a place that I would like to see succeed and I really like a lot of the good users here. So far this content is only available here. If that changes in the future I will inform you but this is currently Steemit exclusive. Thanks for helping in that.