End Game Prediction - A license to use crypto
With cryptocurrencies like Monero and others, I predict 2018 will be the year of regulation. We are beginning to see it now with ICOs but what is the end game regulation?
If we look at how the government controls guns by requiring a license, or anything else dangerous, we will see that sooner or later there is going to be a crypto license. This is going to happen because sooner or later someone is going to abuse the empowerment that Monero and other cryptocurrencies give and this abuse of power will be held up by politicians to push to ban cryptocurrency entirely. As public sentiment shifts toward more conservative views on crypto, I predict the compromise position from the government will be to demand all who hold crypto to get a license and become a licensed cryptocurrency user.
The license strategy separates the honest from dishonest actors in the cryptospace
Large honest holders may choose to renounce citizenship and live somewhere else. Crypto holders who do not wish to leave the United States and who wish to be seen as honest will be coerced into obtaining and maintaining a license. Just as lawyers have a license to practice law, and doctors have a license to practice medicine, crypto users will be pressured and eventually required to have a license. Those who choose not to get a license and who do not renounce US citizenship will likely be targeted by the government with the full force of the law.
On one hand with the license, there at least will be the option for licensed users to keep their privacy. Monero will not be outright banned. Technology will not be suppressed directly and people can if they are rich enough simply renounce US Citizenship and go where they are treated best. On the other hand people who aren't so rich, who aren't able to just leave, but who don't want to get and maintain a license, are going to have problems.
As we know with gun licenses, it will quickly become a way to control the spread of crypto. Users of crypto who for example have been convicted of domestic violence or violent crimes, might find they cannot get a license at all. And users who get into trouble might find their license revoked.