If you don't believe that we will have a long term bear market term please read the reasons below. Of course I hope the market turns around but you'd better be prepared for all likely scenarios.
1 Fundamentals, Market sentiment and Technical Analysis will not help crypto grow in the short term. We need new money coming into this space, if we are to grow and have a sustained market. Yes, there is the CBOE EFT that is being proposed and right now the camp is looking 97% approval, but what will happen if it doesn't pass or gets delayed over and over. We will see a decline on all cryptocurrencies and market sentiment will become more negative. Plus the amount of people that fomo'ed and bought at the all time high. They would have gotten burned, kicked, scammed and bamboozled into loosing their hard earned money.. It will take a very long time to regain trust or probably never touch crypto again. People also say that we need institutional money to come in and save the market, but the institutions are already here, In Europe it is already being traded under the ETN, and Asia is driving the market .
European ETF Trading Behemoth Begins Trading Bitcoin and Ethereum ETN
The Top 10 Chinese-Backed Crypto Hedge Funds
Japanese mobile gaming firm launches $30m fund for global crypto investments
2 What is the real value of bitcoin if its only use case is to trade with each other, and the blockchain is the network on which the transactions are stored. Would you pay $19,000 for a technology that lets a sender transfer $100.00 to you without a bank? Yes, the block chain is an innovative technology in other applications and projects but bitcoin is not this vehicle or this technology. Innovate, adapt or die! People will wake up and realize bitcoin is just a simple trading network and other cryptos like ethereum, eos, neo, ont will be more valuable because they are able to build apps on it. There is no apps on the bitcoin network, (not lightning network which is still in testing)
3 Most ICOs are scams. It is an unregulated go fund me campaign to over promise and under deliver. The SEC is finally stepping in to regulate some projects but what about foreign ICOs? Many people are starting to wise up by not participating in presale projects. Eventually the ICO market will dry up and some of the really innovative products will not reach their funded goal due to the abuse these scammers has perpertraded.
4 World economy? How can this affect crypto? The stocks are rising, the economy is doing well, Trump is in power. Reality is, we are in a bubble, the world governments has been printing money non stop to band aid the situation, we are in a trade war and Trum may be our for USA best interest but he is stepping on to may leader's toes to get his way. Not sure ywt what this presidency will cost us.
If a new depression is indeed coming, be educated and be prepared.
5 The crypto currency market is very immature. This space is still driven by news and not by fundamentals. It is also driven by young speculative minds who hate to be tied down and told what to do. However, what will happen to the old republic when our future is not investing in them? It will crumble and crash. The old republic will need to do something that will switch the money and power back to them. Do you think that these juggernauts, that control the economy, will just stand by and watch their money go down the drain. No, they will fight back, spread lies, fear, uncertainty, doubt, fake news, hatred, and all the negativity around this new innovation to make you go back to traditional investing.
I hope that I am wrong and that bitcoin will surpass 50k this year but if it does not I just want you to be prepared of what dreams may come.
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